Market Overview: Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) – December 18, 2025

Summary
• Price tested key resistance at 1.84 and bounced back toward support at 1.80.
• Strong bearish divergence emerged in RSI after midday ET.
• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly, signaling rising volatility.
• Volume surged during the 13:45–14:45 ET window, aligning with a sharp rally.

Market Overview

DOTUSDT opened at 1.822 on December 17, 2025, and traded between 1.77 and 1.888 before closing at 1.855 on December 18. The total 24-hour volume was 7,766,937.43 DOT, with a notional turnover of $15,298,354. Price action showed a distinct bearish bias into the early hours before a midday rally.

Structure & Formations

On the 5-minute chart, price carved a bearish engulfing pattern at 1.832 and a bullish harami at 1.805, hinting at short-term sentiment shifts. Resistance levels at 1.84 and 1.866 held multiple times, while support at 1.80–1.804 was confirmed during the overnight pullback. A 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line in the early morning, signaling a bearish tilt.

Momentum and Overbought/Oversold Conditions

The RSI bottomed at 28 during the overnight dip and later rose to 55, suggesting a possible re-entry into neutral territory. However, a bearish divergence emerged as RSI failed to surpass prior highs despite price pushing above 1.832. MACD crossed below the signal line after 01:45 ET, reinforcing bearish momentum.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands experienced a significant expansion as price moved from 1.804 at 04:30 ET to 1.874 at 14:00 ET, indicating rising volatility. Price remained within the band most of the session, but a period of contraction between 06:00 and 08:00 ET suggested a potential reversal could be in the works.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked sharply during the 13:45–14:45 ET window, coinciding with the 1.866–1.875 price rally. Notional turnover during this period reached $3.9 million, with a strong push of 585,188.04 DOT traded at 13:45 ET. The volume–price convergence suggests buying interest at key resistance levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 5-minute swings showed price testing the 61.8% retracement level at 1.866 during the afternoon rally. On a daily chart, the 38.2% level at 1.817 and 61.8% at 1.852 were both significant during the 24-hour span. Price closed just above the 61.8% level, indicating potential for a pullback or consolidation.

In the next 24 hours, DOTUSDT appears to be at a critical juncture. A break above 1.866 could signal renewed bullish momentum, while a retest of 1.80 may confirm bearish pressure. Traders should remain cautious due to the elevated volatility and divergences in momentum indicators.