Market Overview for Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) – 24-Hour Summary as of 2025-09-22

• Price dropped 7.6% from $4.308 to $3.975 on high-volume bearish pressure.
• Momentum weakened significantly as RSI fell below 30, suggesting oversold conditions.
• Volatility spiked overnight as Polkadot broke below key support levels.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the early ET session, reflecting heightened uncertainty.
• 15-minute and daily charts show divergences in price and volume suggesting bearish continuation is likely.

DOTUSDT opened at $4.308 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3.975 as of 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET. The price reached a high of $4.308 and a low of $3.821 during the 24-hour period. Total volume was 5,714,210.82 DOT, and notional turnover amounted to $21,721,430.94.

Structure & Formations

Polkadot/Tether has been in a bearish consolidation phase for the past 24 hours, with price testing multiple key support levels. A breakdown below the 4.236–4.256 support cluster occurred during the early morning hours, with confirmation via a bearish engulfing pattern and a long lower wick forming at the $4.181 level. A key area of interest is the $4.000 level, where price has spent much of the day consolidating. A doji formed at 04:15 ET and 15:15 ET, signaling indecision and potential reversal signals, though price has yet to show conviction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed well below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating short-term bearish momentum. The 50-period MA is currently at $3.985, and the 20-period MA is at $4.006. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at $4.10, while the 100-period MA is at $4.16 and the 200-period MA at $4.19. Price is now significantly below all three, suggesting a potential continuation of the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD has turned negative and remains in bearish territory, with the histogram showing a consistent contraction in bullish momentum. The RSI has fallen sharply to 29, indicating oversold conditions, though it has shown no signs of bouncing off this level. A bearish divergence is visible between the RSI and price action on the 15-minute chart, particularly between 05:00–08:00 ET, where price continued lower while RSI failed to make new lows. This could suggest further downside is likely before any reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased dramatically during the overnight session, as reflected by the expansion of the Bollinger Bands between 00:00–03:00 ET. Price spent much of this time near the lower band, particularly between $4.12–4.15. The 20-period Bollinger Band width has now stabilized, indicating a potential exhaustion in the current downward move. The price remains below the midline of the bands, but the widening band suggests potential for a breakout or reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the breakdown below the 4.236–4.256 support, especially between 00:45–01:00 ET, when a large candle closed at $4.199 on $685,791.05 of volume. This was followed by a sharp drop in turnover as price continued lower during the early morning hours. Notional turnover was highest between 06:15–06:45 ET, with price dropping from $4.05 to $3.969 on $2.8M in turnover. A clear bearish confirmation occurred during this period as volume and price moved in the same direction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the 24-hour high at $4.308 and the low at $3.821, key Fibonacci levels include the 38.2% retracement at $4.087 and the 61.8% retracement at $4.187. Price has tested both levels and failed to hold above either. On the 15-minute chart, recent swings show a 61.8% retracement level at $4.004, which has acted as resistance. A close above this level could signal a short-term reversal, but as of 12:00 ET, price remains below it.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish structure and oversold RSI conditions, a backtesting strategy could be developed based on the assumption that price is likely to retest key Fibonacci levels before a potential rebound. A long bias could be triggered if price closes above the 61.8% retracement level at $4.187 on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below the recent swing low at $3.968. Additionally, a bearish divergence in the RSI could be used as a sell signal if price fails to break above the $4.187 level, reinforcing the idea that bearish momentum may continue. The strategy would also monitor for a bullish engulfing pattern forming at or near the $4.000 level as a possible reversal sign before entering any long position.