Market Overview: Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) on 2025-10-08

• Price tested key support at $4.120 before rebounding, forming a bullish harami at the 12:00 ET close.
• Momentum shifted from bearish in the early hours to neutral-laced-bullish in the last 6 hours.
• Volatility expanded midday, with a high-low range exceeding 4.5% and notable volume spikes.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory early, then climbed to mid-50s, suggesting waning selling pressure.
• Turnover surged during the late-night selloff, confirming bearish sentiment, but diverged from price in the final 3 hours.

Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) opened at $4.148 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at $4.153 on 2025-10-08 at the same time, with a 24-hour high of $4.203 and a low of $4.085. Total volume was 4,577,643.8 units, and notional turnover reached $18,875,638.70, reflecting heightened interest amid bearish and bullish swings.

Structure and key levels show a bearish breakdown below the $4.140 psychological level but stalled at the $4.120 support. A bullish harami at the 12:00 ET close signals a possible reversal. The 20-period EMA at $4.155 and the 50-period EMA at $4.160 suggest buyers may have taken control of the short-term trend.

Momentum indicators reflect a shift from bearish to neutral. The 12-period MACD crossed above zero in the last 3 hours, while the RSI climbed from oversold territory to 51, indicating potential consolidation. Bollinger Bands widened during the selloff to $4.085 but have since narrowed, suggesting a possible reversion to the mean.

Volume and turnover spiked during the early morning selloff, with a large bearish candle at $4.097–$4.122. However, volume decreased significantly in the last 6 hours, and price action outperformed turnover, signaling possible retail participation. Fibonacci retracement levels show the 61.8% retracement at $4.157 as a potential resistance target.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy involves entering a long position when a bullish harami forms at a key support level, confirmed by a MACD crossover above zero and a RSI crossing above 50. Exit is triggered when price breaks below the 20-period EMA or RSI dips below 50. Given the recent candlestick confirmation and MACD/RSI alignment, this setup could offer a high-probability entry for the next 24 hours. However, the strategy assumes a stable macro environment and does not account for unexpected regulatory or macroeconomic shocks.