Market Overview for Polkadot/Tether (DOT/USDT) – September 23, 2025

• Price action for DOT/USDT showed a strong rebound, ending near a 24-hour high of $4.059
• RSI and MACD confirmed positive momentum, with no signs of overbought conditions
• Increased volume during the afternoon ET reinforced bullish breakout
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating rising volatility
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed midday, supporting the upside case

At 12:00 ET on September 22, Polkadot/Tether (DOT/USDT) opened at $3.989 and closed at $4.021 by 12:00 ET on September 23. The pair hit a 24-hour high of $4.059 and a low of $3.935. Total volume over the period was 2,234,882.44 and notional turnover amounted to approximately $8,842,276.33. The price action demonstrated a strong recovery and consolidation around key psychological levels.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure of DOT/USDT over the last 24 hours featured a bullish reversal pattern. A large bullish engulfing candle emerged after a significant pullback in the early evening (ET), which is often seen as a strong reversal signal. Support levels can be identified at the 24-hour low of $3.935 and at $3.96–$3.97, where the price repeatedly found buyers. On the resistance side, the $4.04–$4.05 level appears to be a critical threshold that, if broken, could lead to further upside. A doji near the $4.056 high suggests a momentary pause in buying momentum.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have been moving in tandem, providing dynamic support and reinforcing the bullish bias. The 50-period MA is currently at $4.008, while the 20-period MA is at $4.023. These lines align closely, indicating a strong trend continuation. On the daily chart, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period MAs are aligned in a bullish formation, with the 50-period MA above the others and the 200-period at $3.89, suggesting the pair may continue higher over the next few days.

The MACD (12, 26, 9) is positive and crossing above the zero line, with the signal line rising, indicating sustained upward momentum. The RSI is currently at 58.2, comfortably within the neutral range but trending upward, suggesting the pair is not overbought and may continue its rally.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands for the 15-minute timeframe have expanded significantly over the past 24 hours, reflecting increased volatility. Price has spent much of the session near the upper band, particularly after the bullish engulfing candle formed. This suggests traders are buying at higher levels, indicating strong conviction. The middle band is at $4.015, and the upper band currently sits at $4.06, making it a key level to watch for potential breakouts.

The expansion of the bands may signal a continuation of the trend, or alternatively, an imminent reversal if price fails to hold the upper band. A retest of the $4.00–$4.01 zone (lower band) would be a bearish sign but seems unlikely given the current strength in volume and momentum.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked during the afternoon and early evening ET, coinciding with the formation of the bullish engulfing pattern and the breakout from a key support level. The highest volume candle occurred at 20:45 ET, with a volume of 209,206.84, confirming the breakout was not a false signal. Turnover also increased during this period, reinforcing the strength of the move.

Notably, volume and turnover did not diverge during the subsequent consolidation phase, suggesting the buying pressure remains intact. A divergence would have indicated weak conviction, but here, both metrics align with the bullish trend. This consistency in volume and turnover provides confidence in the current price trajectory.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the recent swing from $3.935 to $4.059, Fibonacci levels are key for potential support and resistance. The 61.8% retracement level is at $4.003, which the price has already tested and bounced from. The 38.2% retracement is at $3.976, acting as a minor support level.

On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level from the broader swing (e.g., from a previous low to recent high) is at $3.997, which also aligns with recent support. If the price pulls back, these levels will be crucial for traders to watch. A break below the 61.8% level would signal a potential shift in sentiment, though this seems unlikely with the current bullish setup.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve using a combination of the bullish engulfing pattern and the 20-period moving average as entry signals. Specifically, an entry would be triggered when a bullish engulfing candle forms and the price closes above the 20-period MA. A stop-loss could be placed just below the most recent swing low, and a take-profit target could be set at the nearest Fibonacci resistance level, such as the 61.8% retracement or the upper Bollinger Band.

Given the current structure of the DOT/USDT pair, this strategy would have been activated during the bullish engulfing pattern that formed in the late afternoon. The strategy would benefit from the strong volume and momentum confirmation during that period. Over the next 24 hours, this approach could be tested if the price continues to hold above the 20-period MA and shows further bullish signs.