Market Overview for POLJPY on 2025-09-23

• POLJPY opened at 33.6 and hit a high of 34.01 before closing at 33.65 on 2025-09-23.
• Volatility expanded in overnight trade, with a 5.7% swing from 32.96 to 34.01.
• Strong volume-driven rally between 08:30–09:15 ET lifted price 1.6% above key resistance.
• MACD and RSI show divergences, indicating potential momentum fade.
• High turnover of ¥19755.8 seen at 08:30 ET, confirming bullish breakout.

Market Summary and Key Metrics

POLJPY opened at 33.6 on 2025-09-22 and reached a high of 34.01 before settling at 33.65 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of 147,430.3 units and a notional turnover of ¥197,558, with the largest single-volume spike at 08:30 ET. The price action was characterized by a sharp overnight rally from a low of 32.96 to a high of 34.01, followed by a consolidation phase during the Asian and European sessions.

Structure & Formations

The overnight selloff created a strong support at 32.96, which held for three consecutive 15-minute bars. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 08:30 ET, confirming a breakout above the prior high of 34.01. Key resistance levels are now at 34.01 and 33.77, while key support levels are at 33.65 and 33.50. A doji formed near 33.65 at the 12:00 ET close, hinting at indecision at the 24-hour high.

Moving Averages and Trend Context

On the 15-minute chart, price closed above the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, reinforcing the short-term bullish bias. The 50-period SMA currently sits at 33.68, and the 20-period SMA at 33.72. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is at 33.45, and the 100-period and 200-period SMAs are at 33.31 and 33.23, respectively, indicating a longer-term uptrend.

MACD and RSI Momentum Indicators

The MACD showed a bullish crossover and positive momentum during the overnight rally, peaking at 08:30 ET. RSI hit 68–69 during the high, showing overbought conditions. A divergence formed between price and RSI in the final hour of the session, suggesting potential bearish follow-through. The MACD histogram is contracting, hinting at a slowdown in buying pressure.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded sharply overnight, with the Bollinger Bands widening from a range of ±0.25 to ±0.47. Price closed near the upper band at 33.65, indicating strength in the short term. A period of consolidation below the 34.01 level would likely see volatility compress again, setting up for a potential break higher or a pullback to test the 33.50 support.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked at 19755.8 units during the 08:30–09:00 ET window, confirming the breakout above 34.01. Turnover during this period also rose significantly, validating the bullish signal. Divergence is seen in the final hour of the session, with price rising while volume declined, raising questions about the sustainability of the move. Overall, volume acted as a strong confirmation tool during the key price moves.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the overnight swing (32.96–34.01), the 38.2% retracement level is at 33.80 and the 61.8% level is at 33.58. Price closed near the 61.8% level, suggesting potential support in the 33.65–33.58 range. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the larger 2025-08–2025-09 move is around 33.30, which may offer additional support if the current rally falters.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could be built around the overnight breakouts confirmed by high-volume bars and bullish engulfing patterns. A signal could be generated when price closes above the prior high on increasing volume and RSI enters overbought territory. A stop-loss could be placed just below the 33.65 level, with a take-profit target at 34.01 and then 34.25. A trailing stop could be used once the 61.8% retracement level is passed to protect gains. Given the recent divergence in RSI and MACD, this strategy should also include a filter for momentum confirmation to avoid false breakouts.