Market Overview: POL/Yen (POLJPY) – Volatile 24-Hour Push and Key Resistance Tests

• POLJPY traded in a 24-hour range of ¥29.78 to ¥31.45, closing near the upper band after a volatile midday push.
• Price surged past 30.72 with high volume, forming bullish engulfing patterns in key breakout windows.
• RSI hit overbought territory near 70 late afternoon, suggesting possible near-term correction.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the ¥30.41–31.45 move, signaling heightened volatility and momentum.
• Notional turnover spiked to ¥40,361 at 13:45 ET, coinciding with a ¥31.05 close and sharp rally from ¥30.60.

The POL/Yen pair (POLJPY) opened at ¥29.78 on October 12 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥31.45 on October 13 at the same hour, with a high of ¥31.45 and a low of ¥29.78. Total volume traded over the period was 264,181.8 units, and notional turnover amounted to ¥8,528,108. The pair saw a strong midday push from ¥30.41 to ¥31.16, followed by a late afternoon rally to ¥31.45. Key resistance levels emerged at ¥30.72, ¥31.01, and ¥31.22, with the latter being tested multiple times before a final close near ¥31.45.

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bullish crossover late in the session, indicating short-term momentum to the upside. However, the 50-period MA has yet to cross above the 200-period MA on the daily chart, keeping the longer-term trend neutral. A strong bullish divergence is visible in the midday data, where price and momentum both accelerated after breaking above ¥30.72. This divergence reinforced a breakout signal, with volume confirming the strength of the move.

The MACD line showed a strong positive crossover in the early afternoon, with a bullish signal line crossing above the zero line. The RSI reached overbought territory (above 70) by 13:45 ET, suggesting possible near-term pullback or consolidation. Bollinger Bands expanded during the ¥30.41–31.45 move, with price closing near the upper band, indicating high volatility and continuation potential. The bands tightened briefly overnight before widening again as the pair broke ¥31.01, signaling renewed momentum.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the ¥29.78–31.45 move show key levels at ¥30.83 (38.2%), ¥31.21 (50%), and ¥31.53 (61.8%). The price tested ¥31.21 twice before pushing higher to ¥31.45, suggesting ¥31.22 as a strong initial resistance. A retest of ¥31.01 or ¥30.72 in the next 24 hours could offer a potential pullback entry or a bearish reversal warning if rejected. Given the strong volume and notional turnover on the rally, a continuation above ¥31.53 would signal the start of a more defined uptrend.

Backtest Hypothesis
Based on the technical setup and recent price behavior, a potential backtest strategy could focus on breakout entries above key resistance levels (¥30.72, ¥31.01, ¥31.22), with stop-loss placed just below the prior swing low (e.g., ¥30.68). Entries would be triggered on a close above these levels, with a target at the next Fibonacci retracement or Bollinger Band. The MACD and RSI divergence could be used as confirmation for short-term entries, particularly on the 15-minute chart where bullish momentum accelerated during the ¥30.72–31.45 move.