Market Overview for POL/Yen (POLJPY) – September 19, 2025

• POLJPY opened at 38.45 and reached a high of 39.13 before closing at 37.44, amid declining price and volatile swings.
• Volume spiked twice, at 7904.4 and 5846.8, with notable divergence in price and turnover during key pullbacks.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 39.13, followed by a breakdown below key support at 38.39 and 37.57.
• RSI entered oversold territory below 30, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce, though momentum remains bearish.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion during the breakdown, indicating heightened volatility and a possible continuation of the decline.

POL/Yen (POLJPY) opened at 38.45 on September 18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 37.44 on September 19 at the same time, with a high of 39.13 and a low of 37.23. Total volume amounted to 146,215.3 units, while total notional turnover reached 5,476,585.7. The pair experienced a sharp bearish reversal following a failed attempt to break above 39.13, with significant bearish volume clusters below 38.50.

Structure & Formations

POLJPY formed a bearish engulfing pattern at 39.13, signaling a reversal from the bullish momentum. A key support level emerged at 38.39, which was violated during the early session. After the breakdown, a secondary support at 37.57 held briefly before a further decline. A doji formed at 38.00, indicating indecision, but was followed by a strong bearish candle that closed at 37.57. This formation suggests a continuation of the bearish bias if support below 37.57 is tested.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below 38.50 during the bearish breakout, reinforcing the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA earlier in the week, indicating a longer-term bearish bias. The price remains well below both key moving averages, with no sign of a bullish crossover in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a bearish divergence as price reached new lows without confirmation from the indicator, but it has since aligned with the downward trend. The RSI dipped into oversold territory near 30, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. However, given the sustained bearish pressure, any rebound is likely to be limited unless accompanied by a sharp increase in volume. Momentum remains on the bearish side, with no clear sign of reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the breakdown from 39.13 to 37.57, indicating heightened volatility. Price action has remained near the lower band for much of the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. A pullback above the 20-period EMA may test the upper band temporarily, but a sustained move above it would require a significant volume surge.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically at 7904.4 and 5846.8, coinciding with the breakdown below 38.39 and 37.57. These spikes confirm the bearish move, as price action and volume aligned. However, the decline in turnover during the late session suggests weakening bearish pressure. A divergence between price and turnover could indicate a near-term bottoming process, but this needs to be confirmed with a bullish candle and increased volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 38.45–39.13 swing, key levels include 38.73 (23.6%), 38.62 (38.2%), and 38.53 (50%). The price failed at all these levels before a breakdown to 37.57. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent bearish move may come into play around 36.75–36.80. A test of these levels could offer a short-term bounce, but a break below 37.57 could extend the decline.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve a short entry on a breakdown below a key Fibonacci support level, confirmed by a bearish engulfing candle and a volume spike. A stop-loss could be placed above the most recent swing high (e.g., 38.39), while a target could be set at the next Fibonacci level (37.57 or 36.75). The RSI entering oversold territory could signal a potential entry for longs on a pullback, provided volume increases and price closes above 37.57. This strategy would require a high time frame (e.g., daily) to confirm the trend and a lower time frame (e.g., 15-minute) to identify precise entries.