Market Overview for POL/Yen (POLJPY) – 24-Hour Summary

• POL/Yen declined sharply, closing at 36.91 after a 24-hour high of 38.02 and a low of 36.75.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded with a sharp drop in the last 48 hours, and volume surged during the decline.
• A key support level was tested around 36.8–36.85, with a potential reversal candle forming.
• Bollinger Bands widened as price pushed to the lower band, indicating heightened bearish pressure.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-17, POLJPY opened at 37.48, reached a high of 38.02, and closed at 36.91, with a low of 36.75. Total volume over the 24 hours was approximately 147,984.6 and turnover stood at 5,605,040.9. The pair saw a sharp decline from midday onwards, with bearish momentum intensifying as price pushed lower into key support levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period displayed a clear bearish bias, particularly from 16:00–24:00 ET on 2025-09-16. A strong bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 23:45 ET when POLJPY opened at 37.83 and closed at 37.73, confirming a shift in sentiment. A significant drop occurred around 08:45 ET when price fell from 37.38 to 36.81, forming a long lower wick and hinting at potential bounce from that level. A key support at 36.8–36.85 appears to have held with a bullish hammer pattern observed at 10:00–10:15 ET.

Moving Averages

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both moved lower, with the 50-line currently below the 20-line, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA has crossed below the 100- and 200-period lines, forming a death cross. Price is trading significantly below all three, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend for the foreseeable future.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has remained negative throughout the 24-hour period, with the signal line also trending lower, indicating continued bearish momentum. The histogram is expanding to the downside, reinforcing the strength of the sell-off. RSI dipped below 30 at 09:00 ET and remained near 30 for several hours, pointing to oversold conditions. While this may suggest a potential bounce, the bearish trend remains intact, and a sustained move above 37.2 would be needed to reinvigorate bullish sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly during the sharp decline, with price hitting the lower band around 08:45 ET. The band width is wide, indicating high volatility. Price has remained within the bands but has not shown any clear signs of reversal, with buyers yet to step in decisively. A move above the middle band would be a key sign of short-term momentum reversal, while a break below the lower band could confirm a deeper correction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp downward move from 37.38 to 36.81, with the 08:45 ET candle showing a turnover of 42,499.6 on a price drop of 57 basis points. The volume-to-price divergence during this period is a strong bearish confirmation. Later in the session, volume decreased as price stabilized near 36.8–36.85, suggesting a possible consolidation phase. Overall, volume and price action are aligned in the bearish direction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 38.02–36.75 swing, 36.86 aligns with the 61.8% level, which appears to have held as a key support. A bounce from here may target the 78.6% retracement at 37.02 as a potential resistance level. On a daily chart, the 50% retracement of the larger swing is at 37.5, which could act as a key level if buyers re-enter the market.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy focuses on identifying key Fibonacci levels and volume divergence to time entries and exits in the POLJPY pair. Given the recent price action, a potential entry could be triggered if price closes above 37.02, aligning with the 78.6% retracement level. The strategy assumes that volume divergences during sharp declines act as early warning signs of a reversal. A close above the 50-period MA and a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart could provide confirmation of a short-term reversal, with a target of 37.2–37.5 as the initial upside objective.