Market Overview for POL/Yen (POLJPY): 24-Hour Analysis on 2025-10-31

• Price action began at 28.66 and ended at 29.27, with a 15-minute bullish reversal observed in the final candle.
• Momentum indicators show a sharp upward move, with RSI near overbought territory after a prolonged rally.
• Volume spiked to 23,336.6 in the last 4 hours, correlating with price highs above 29.00 and suggesting strong buying interest.
• A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 29.00 appears to act as a dynamic support/resistance pivot point.
• Volatility increased significantly, with Bollinger Bands expanding as the price approached and breached the upper band.

The POL/Yen pair (POLJPY) opened at 28.66 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 29.27 by 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 29.36 and a low of 27.69 during the 24-hour window. Total volume traded over the period was 351,409.9 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 9,732,808.5 Yen. Price action reflected a strong recovery from a morning dip, with a bullish breakout occurring just before the end of the observation window.

Structure and formations revealed a key support level near 28.00, tested and rebounded from in the early session, followed by a consolidation phase between 28.50 and 28.80. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 29.00, followed by a strong hammer formation at 29.00–29.08, which signaled potential bullish momentum. A doji near the upper Bollinger Band at 29.34 indicated indecision and potential exhaustion at the top end of the range.

Moving averages showed a clear crossover of the 20-period over the 50-period on the 15-minute chart, suggesting a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period line was approaching the 200-period line, hinting at a potential long-term reversal if the 29.36 high is sustained beyond the next 48 hours. The price currently resides above all major moving averages, indicating a strong upward trend.

MACD turned positive in the final hours of the 24-hour window, confirming the bullish momentum. RSI reached 70, approaching overbought levels, which may indicate short-term consolidation or a pullback. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as the price moved toward the upper band, suggesting heightened volatility. The price closed just below the upper band at 29.27, with the potential for a continuation of the upward trend.

The volume profile showed a sharp increase in the final hours, with the highest single 15-minute volume of 23,336.6 units coinciding with a price push to 29.27. This volume confirmed the strength of the bullish breakout. No notable divergence between price and volume was observed, suggesting strong conviction in the upward move. The total notional turnover was aligned with price gains, supporting the view of a genuine bullish phase.

Fibonacci retracement levels played a key role during the session, with the 61.8% level at 29.00 acting as a pivotal support/resistance level. The price tested this level twice, with the second test resulting in a breakout. The 38.2% retracement at 28.50 also acted as a minor support, which helped in forming the consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

The technical indicators observed in the 24-hour period suggest a potential opportunity for a MACD-based trading strategy. The bullish crossover of the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, combined with a strong RSI reading, supports the idea of entering a long position at the next open. Given the current momentum and the lack of bearish divergence in volume, a 7-day holding period appears to be a viable strategy for capturing a potential continuation of the bullish trend.

To execute this strategy, the correct ticker symbol must be confirmed. If "POLJPY" is the correct identifier, daily closing prices will be used to calculate the MACD and generate trade signals at the next open. In the absence of confirmation, an alternative symbol like "PLNJPY" or the exact exchange-specific ticker will be required to ensure the backtest is accurate and replicable.

If confirmed, the strategy will be benchmarked against the Harbor Alpha Layering ETF (HOLD.P) to assess relative performance. Risk controls such as stop-loss and take-profit levels can be added upon confirmation, but for now, the strategy will proceed with the 7-day hold as outlined.