Market Overview for POL/Yen (POLJPY) – 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-09-24

• POLJPY traded in a volatile 24-hour range, opening at 33.66 and closing at 33.95, with a high of 34.13 and a low of 32.91.
• A strong rebound emerged after a sharp dip to 32.91, with volume surging above 4,000 in key 15-minute intervals.
• Momentum indicators suggest a potential overbought condition, with RSI peaking near 75 toward the closing hours.
• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the recovery phase, indicating heightened volatility.
• Price showed a divergence from turnover in the early hours but aligned during the late recovery, suggesting accumulation.

POL/Yen (POLJPY) opened at 33.66 on 2025-09-23 12:00 ET and closed at 33.95 at the same time on 2025-09-24. The pair reached a high of 34.13 and a low of 32.91 during the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was approximately 116,900, while notional turnover amounted to roughly 3,835,000 yen. The price action showed a significant recovery from an early morning trough, signaling potential short-covering and accumulation.

Structure & Formations

POLJPY formed several key patterns over the 24-hour period, including a bearish engulfing pattern during the early hours and a bullish harami following the morning low. Key support levels emerged around 33.20 and 32.91, where the price bounced sharply. Resistance was observed near 33.49 and 34.03, with the latter holding briefly before a final push above 34.10. These levels suggest a possible consolidation phase ahead, but traders should watch for breakouts or breakdowns in the next 24 hours.

Moving Averages and MACD / RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages converged near 33.45–33.50 during the middle of the day, supporting a neutral bias. The 50-period line held firm as a dynamic support. MACD showed a positive crossover in the late afternoon, confirming a bullish shift in momentum. RSI peaked near overbought territory around 75–76, indicating potential for a short-term pullback or consolidation.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands experienced a noticeable expansion during the price rebound from 32.91 to 34.13, suggesting a rise in volatility. Price remained within the upper band for most of the afternoon and evening, indicating strong bullish pressure. A retraction toward the midline of the bands could offer a key entry or exit trigger for traders.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged above 4,000 during key 15-minute intervals in the morning and evening, confirming the price bounce and afternoon rally. Turnover mirrored this surge, particularly in the hour preceding the 12:00 ET close. Divergences occurred briefly in the early morning, but were resolved by mid-day as accumulation became apparent. This suggests strong conviction from larger participants.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements from the 32.91 low to the 34.13 high showed key levels at 33.62 (38.2%), 33.94 (61.8%), and the 34.03 closing level. Price approached and slightly exceeded the 61.8% retracement level, signaling a potential pause or reversal. A break above 34.13 could bring the 34.27–34.30 Fibonacci extension into focus for further upside.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent structure and volatility, a potential backtesting strategy would involve entering long positions on a bullish breakout above the 34.03 Fibonacci level with a stop below 33.84. A target of 34.27 aligns with both the 61.8% extension and recent Bollinger Band behavior. This approach could be combined with a trailing stop or fixed risk-reward ratio (e.g., 1:2) for risk management. Historical data should be tested to evaluate the effectiveness of this setup under similar volatility and volume conditions.