Market Overview for POL/Yen (POLJPY) – 2025-10-05 12:00 ET

• POLJPY rallied to ¥36.00 amid strong afternoon buying, but reversed sharply lower, closing at ¥35.29 with high volatility.
• Volatility spiked 50% above average on the 15-min chart, with volume peaking near ¥36.00 and diverging from price on the close.
• RSI entered oversold territory below 25, suggesting short-term exhaustion, while MACD turned bearish with a bearish crossover after bullish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands widened post-¥35.70, reflecting erratic price swings, with the close at the lower band indicating a potential short-term bounce.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at ¥35.29 and ¥35.65 appear to be holding as key support levels for near-term stability.

24-Hour Summary

POL/Yen (POLJPY) opened at ¥34.67 on 2025-10-04 12:00 ET and surged to a high of ¥36.00 during the session, before retreating sharply to close at ¥35.29 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05. The pair saw a total volume of 199,517.3 units and a notional turnover of ¥6,938,529.30 over the 24-hour period. The price action showed a classic overextension top pattern, with a bearish reversal evident in the last hour of the session.

Structure & Formations

On the 15-minute chart, POLJPY exhibited a sharp bullish rally from ¥34.67 to ¥36.06, followed by a sharp bearish reversal, forming a potential bearish engulfing pattern near the high. A doji formed at ¥35.31, signaling indecision. Key support levels identified include ¥35.29 (last close), ¥35.26 (Bollinger Band), and ¥35.00 (previous day's pivot). Resistance is expected to hold at ¥35.43–35.65, with ¥35.82 also showing prior resistance.

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Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover late in the session, reinforcing the downward reversal. The price broke below both, suggesting short-term bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly post-¥35.70, indicating heightened volatility. Price ended near the lower band, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce, though the overall trend remains bearish.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish with a crossover and negative histogram, reflecting weakening bullish momentum. RSI dropped sharply from 75 to 25, entering oversold territory, which could signal a near-term reversal. However, the bearish momentum remains intact with no clear sign of reversal in the 20-period EMA. Overbought conditions were confirmed earlier during the rally, reinforcing the current bearish bias.

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Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the midday rally, peaking at ¥36.00 with 10,287.4 units traded. However, turnover sharply declined in the last hour as price reversed, indicating price-volume divergence. Total turnover of ¥6,938,529.30 suggests significant interest but also a potential exhaustion in the bullish phase. The divergence between volume and price action may indicate a potential short-term correction or reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels from the ¥34.67–36.06 swing suggest key support at ¥35.29 (61.8%) and ¥35.00 (78.6%). The price closed near the 61.8% level, which could hold as a short-term support. Resistance is expected at ¥35.43 (38.2%) and ¥35.65 (50%), both of which have been tested earlier in the session. These levels could dictate the next price movement.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish reversal patterns and confirmation from moving averages, a potential short-selling strategy could be tested using a 15-minute chart. The entry trigger would be a close below the 20-period EMA, confirmed by a bearish crossover in the MACD. A stop-loss could be placed above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at ¥35.29, while a profit target might be set at the 78.6% level at ¥35.00. This approach leverages the observed volatility and divergence in volume, aligning with the bearish momentum observed in the last hour of the session.

Backtest Hypothesis