Market Overview for POL/Yen (POLJPY) on 2025-09-26

• POLJPY opened at 33.09 and closed at 32.88, down from a high of 33.09 to a low of 32.21.
• Price formed a bearish inside bar near the session high and a strong bullish reversal near 32.21.
• Volume surged on the 26th, especially in early hours, but closed with weak momentum on RSI.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility, with price currently near the upper band at close.
• A 15-minute bearish divergence between price and volume suggests a possible near-term consolidation.

The POLJPY pair opened at 33.09 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at 32.88 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range spanned from a high of 33.09 to a low of 32.21, with a total volume of 38,489.8 and a notional turnover of approximately 1,242,217.85 (assuming Yen-based pricing). The market showed a bearish bias in the early part of the session, with a strong bearish move down to 32.21, followed by a partial recovery.

Structure & Formations

The price of POLJPY showed a strong bearish structure in the early morning hours, with a series of lower highs and lower lows forming a descending channel. Key support levels emerged at 32.21 and 32.38, where the price found temporary buyers. A bullish reversal candlestick appeared near 32.21, suggesting potential short-term support. In the late morning and afternoon, the pair moved sideways within a tight range, forming a potential consolidation pattern. A bearish inside bar was evident around 33.09, signaling possible resistance ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a bearish crossover, indicating downward momentum. The 50-period line crossed below the 20-period line, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average was positioned below the 100- and 200-period lines, suggesting the pair remains in a medium-term downtrend. However, the 50-period line appeared to be approaching the 100-period line, which may hint at a potential flattening or minor reversal in the near future.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the early morning, confirming the bearish bias. The histogram showed a widening bearish divergence, suggesting strengthening bear momentum until around 09:00 ET, after which it flattened. The RSI indicator was in overbought territory during a brief rally in the early hours but quickly corrected downward into oversold territory by midday. This suggests strong bear pressure, with the potential for a temporary bounce from current support levels.

The RSI's return to oversold territory around 32.21 may indicate a potential buying opportunity for short-term traders. However, the bearish momentum remains intact, and a sustained move above 32.58 could signal a shift in sentiment. Traders should watch for a break of the 32.21 support level, which could extend the downward trend further.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands indicated moderate volatility throughout the session, with the 20-period midline running below the price for most of the 24 hours. At the close, the price was near the upper band, indicating a potential overbought condition and a possible pullback. The volatility contraction in the early morning was followed by an expansion in the midday hours, which aligns with the strong bear move from 33.09 to 32.21.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was notably higher in the early part of the session, particularly between 00:00 and 04:00 ET on the 26th, coinciding with the sharp bearish move. However, volume tailed off in the late afternoon and evening, suggesting a lack of conviction in the downtrend. The notional turnover was highest during the early morning hours and showed a clear divergence from the price action in the late afternoon, where the pair moved sideways despite increasing volume, indicating a potential weakening of bear momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the swing high at 33.09 and low at 32.21, the key retracement levels were 32.67 (38.2%) and 32.52 (61.8%). The pair briefly reached the 32.52 level before bouncing, suggesting strong support at this area. Traders may want to monitor the 32.67 level as a potential retest point, which could offer a short-term buying opportunity.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions when the price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and confirms with a bearish candlestick pattern. A stop-loss could be placed just above the recent swing high at 32.73 to manage risk. For long positions, a buy opportunity may present itself if the price stabilizes above 32.52 and forms a bullish reversal pattern, such as a morning star or a bullish engulfing pattern. Given the high volume in the early hours, this strategy could be tested using historical data to assess its performance in similar volatility environments.