Market Overview for POL/Tether (POLUSDT) – October 12, 2025

• POL/Tether declined from 0.1945 to 0.1894 over 24 hours, forming bearish momentum and key support near 0.1860.
• Volume surged near 0.1945 and 0.1860, highlighting areas of heavy trading interest and possible reversals.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions during the rally, followed by bearish divergence in late trading.
• Bollinger Bands widened on the decline, indicating rising volatility and consolidation near 0.1900.
• Fibonacci levels highlighted 0.1910 and 0.1860 as key resistance and support, with potential for short-term bounce or breakdown.

POL/Tether traded between 0.1945 and 0.1894 over the past 24 hours, opening at 0.1933 on October 11 at 12:00 ET and closing at 0.1894 at the same time on October 12. Total volume reached 6.76 million units, while notional turnover stood at $128,560. The pair formed bearish patterns and tested key support zones near 0.1860–0.1880, indicating potential for further downside.

Structure and formations revealed a strong bearish trend, with a notable deepening candle on the 15-minute chart after 19:30 ET, suggesting a bearish breakout. A doji candle formed near 0.1894 on October 12 at 11:45 ET, indicating potential indecision or a pause in the decline. Resistance levels appeared at 0.1900, 0.1915, and 0.1930, with support clusters near 0.1860, 0.1840, and 0.1820. The price remains below the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, confirming the bearish bias.

MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early hours of October 12, while RSI reached oversold territory near 0.1860 before a modest rebound. Bollinger Bands expanded during the sharp decline, with price closing near the lower band, signaling high volatility and a potential for consolidation. Volume spiked at key turning points—most notably around 0.1945 and 0.1860—providing confirmation of those levels as significant.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.1945–0.1860 swing highlighted 0.1910 and 0.1880 as potential bounce zones, with 0.1860 and 0.1840 acting as strong short-term support. Price may test 0.1820 if the bearish momentum continues. The 50-period MA on the daily chart remains above the 200-period MA, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy involves entering a short position at the close of a bearish engulfing pattern that forms below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart. A stop-loss is placed above the most recent higher high, while a target is set at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level. Given the recent bearish engulfing pattern near 0.1894 and the price remaining below the 50-period MA, this strategy would have triggered a short entry. The risk-reward setup appears favorable with a potential for a 30–40 basis point move toward 0.1860–0.1840.

Looking ahead, a break below 0.1860 could accelerate the decline toward 0.1840, with 0.1820 as a critical test. Traders should monitor volume and RSI for signs of a potential reversal or continuation. While the short-term bias remains bearish, overextended momentum could invite a corrective bounce toward 0.1900. Risk management remains crucial, as volatility remains elevated and sharp reversals are possible.