Market Overview for POL/Tether (POLUSDT) – 2025-09-23

• POLUSDT opened at $0.2261 and closed at $0.2272, forming a bullish bias with a high of $0.2303 and low of $0.2231.
• Momentum accelerated in the overnight session, with RSI reaching overbought levels and volume surging on the rally.
• A key consolidation phase occurred during the Asian session, with price finding support near $0.2260 and resistance forming near $0.2280.
• Volatility expanded during the 09:00–12:00 ET period, with a large range and increased turnover confirming the bullish move.
• Bollinger Bands tightened earlier in the session before a sharp expansion, suggesting a breakout was in progress.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23, POL/Tether (POLUSDT) opened at $0.2261 and closed at $0.2272, with a 24-hour high of $0.2303 and low of $0.2231. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 26,476,357.20, while turnover (notional value) was $6,243,836.23, reflecting robust participation and price movement.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a clear bullish structure throughout the session, breaking above a key resistance level of $0.2280 around 08:00 ET. A morning engulfing candle at $0.2290–$0.2303 confirmed a strong reversal from the prior bearish bias. A bearish harami formed at $0.2231–$0.2237 during the Asian session, acting as a consolidation phase before the breakout. Support levels at $0.2255 and $0.2260 were tested multiple times and appear resilient, while resistance now sits at $0.2280 and $0.2300.

Key support levels

- $0.2255 (tested twice, strong base)
- $0.2240 (lower consolidation zone)

Key resistance levels

- $0.2280 (breakout zone)
- $0.2300 (next psychological level)

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA during the 09:00–10:00 ET period, forming a bullish golden cross. The daily chart shows the 50-day MA at $0.2265 and the 200-day MA at $0.2240, with price currently above both, indicating a long-term bullish bias. The 100-day MA at $0.2252 is acting as a dynamic support level.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bullish crossover early in the session and remained in positive territory throughout, with the histogram expanding during the 09:00–10:30 ET rally. RSI reached overbought levels (75–80) around 09:30 ET and remained elevated, indicating strong buying pressure and potential for short-term pullbacks. A divergence between RSI and price occurred during the 03:00–04:00 ET consolidation, hinting at a bearish reversal that did not materialize—suggesting strong momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 09:00–12:00 ET period, with the upper band reaching $0.2300 and the lower band at $0.2255. Price remained near the upper band for much of the session, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend. A prior contraction occurred between 03:00–06:00 ET, followed by a breakout, which fits the typical breakout model.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 09:00–12:00 ET period, reaching a 24-hour high of 1.9M at 11:30 ET. This coincided with a sharp price increase to $0.2303 and confirmed the bullish breakout. Turnover also increased sharply during this time, indicating strong conviction in the upward move. However, volume declined during the early European session, which could signal a pause in momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the key swing low at $0.2231 and swing high at $0.2303, the 38.2% level ($0.2266) acted as a pivot point during the 04:00–05:00 ET consolidation. The 61.8% level ($0.2276) was a key resistance during the 06:00–09:00 ET push, and price held firm above it. A 50% retracement at $0.2267 was briefly tested before a final move higher.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy based on a combination of MACD crossover and volume expansion could have captured the bullish breakout on 2025-09-23. A long entry could have been triggered when the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, combined with a surge in volume above the 10-period average. Stops could be placed below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.2276, with a target at the 78.6% retracement or above $0.2300. Given the pattern and volume confirmation, this setup appears to have a high probability of success in similar market conditions.