Market Overview for Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY): Volatility, Divergence, and Reversal Cues

• PLUMETRY traded in a 24-hour range of 4.06–4.18 TRY, with price declining by -1.73%.• A key 15-minute pattern emerged: bullish engulfing at 16:15 ET and a bearish inside bar at 05:15 ET.• RSI suggests overbought and oversold extremes were reached multiple times, indicating choppy momentum.• Volatility spiked around 20:15 ET, followed by a contraction, typical of a pre-breakout pattern.• Notable divergence between volume and price: high turnover at 17:15 ET failed to sustain higher prices.

Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) opened at 4.069 TRY on October 2, 2025, at 12:00 ET, and closed at 4.06 TRY 24 hours later on October 3, 2025. The pair reached a high of 4.189 TRY and a low of 4.04 TRY. The total volume traded was 1,464,959.0, and the notional turnover was 5,846,945.5 TRY, indicating strong intraday participation.

The 15-minute chart reveals a complex intraday structure with a notable bullish engulfing pattern forming at 16:15 ET, signaling short-term buyers entering after a consolidation phase. A bearish inside bar appeared at 05:15 ET, suggesting a potential reversal. These patterns indicate an ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with neither side holding a dominant edge. Key support levels include 4.10 and 4.06, while resistance remains at 4.14 and 4.18 TRY.

Volume and price action diverged during the late afternoon, with the highest volume spike at 17:15 ET failing to drive price higher, hinting at exhaustion among bullish traders. Turnover was also notably high around 20:15 ET and again at 05:15 ET, coinciding with bearish and bullish reversals. These divergences may indicate a potential shift in sentiment or exhaustion in the current trend.

The RSI oscillated between overbought and oversold levels, confirming the choppy nature of the market. MACD crossed into negative territory during the evening, signaling bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands showed a contraction in the early hours of October 3, suggesting a potential breakout scenario. The 20-period moving average hovered above the 50-period line, suggesting a neutral stance, with no strong directional bias. Price remained within the bands for much of the session, indicating consolidation.

A backtesting hypothesis can be constructed based on the above patterns and indicators. A potential strategy could involve entering a short position after a bearish inside bar forms, confirmed by a close below the 20-period moving average and an RSI above 65. A long entry could be triggered after a bullish engulfing pattern with volume confirmation and an RSI below 35. Stop-loss and take-profit levels would be defined using Fibonacci retracement levels from key swings. This strategy would aim to capture short-term reversals within the consolidating range.