Market Overview: Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY)

Summary
• Price fell sharply after an early morning peak, closing near session lows.
• Strong bearish momentum as RSI and MACD both trend downward.
• Volatility expanded with price breaching key support levels.

Opening and 24-Hour Summary

On 2025-11-14, Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) opened at 1.948, reached a high of 1.948, and hit a low of 1.488 before closing at 1.494 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 10,311,202, and notional turnover was approximately 15,965,363 (calculated using average price).

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour window displayed a strong bearish bias. A major support level around 1.60 was tested multiple times but eventually failed. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 2025-11-13 23:00 ET as price closed at 1.654 after a large-bodied candle. A doji formed at 03:00 ET as price tested the 1.594 level, suggesting indecision but ultimately failed to hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bearish, with price firmly below both. For the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period moving averages were aligned in a downward trend, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 100-period moving average remained above price, but with a narrowing gap suggesting the downtrend is consolidating.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line early in the session and remained negative throughout, indicating sustained bearish momentum. RSI plunged to 30 at 08:15 ET and continued falling, suggesting potential oversold conditions, though price failed to rebound significantly. This highlights a lack of buyer conviction despite the low RSI.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the mid-session selloff, with price breaking below the lower band multiple times. This indicates high bearish pressure and potential continuation of the downtrend. The recent retest of the lower band has shown no sign of rejection, raising concerns that the next support level could be around 1.40.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning selloff, peaking at 1,689,238 at 20:00 ET and again at 11:15 ET as price retested key support. Notional turnover mirrored this pattern, suggesting strong distribution rather than accumulation. Divergence between price and volume was observed in the final 3 hours, with price continuing to fall despite diminishing volume, signaling potential exhaustion in the selloff.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price tested the 61.8% retracement level of the prior upswing multiple times, failing to hold each time. On the daily chart, the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels were both pierced during the session. This suggests a high probability of further downside toward the next major Fibonacci level at approximately 1.40.

Backtest Hypothesis

The technical patterns and momentum indicators observed in this session align with a potential backtest strategy involving bearish entries on RSI oversold conditions and bearish MACD crossovers. Given the recent failure to rebound from key support levels and sustained bearish momentum, a strategy that triggers short entries on RSI ≤ 30 and bearish MACD crossovers may have provided profitable opportunities. However, the divergence in the final hours raises questions about entry timing and the need for tighter stop-losses to manage risk effectively.