Market Overview for Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY)

• PLUMETRY rallied from 4.60 to 4.94 before consolidating to 4.83 at 12:00 ET.
• Strong bullish momentum emerged with overbought RSI and expanding volatility.
• Volume surged during the upward move but pulled back during consolidation.
• A large bullish engulfing pattern formed during the peak rally.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest 4.74–4.88 as potential near-term range.

Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) opened at 4.60 at 12:00 ET − 1, surged to 4.94, and closed at 4.83 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 2.43M units, with notional turnover exceeding 11.7M TRY over 24 hours. The price action reflects strong bullish momentum amid rising volatility and a key bullish candlestick formation.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a bullish breakout from a descending triangle, capped by a strong 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern at 08:45–09:00 ET. A key support level appears at the 4.72–4.74 zone, while resistance is now at 4.88–4.91. A long lower shadow at 10:15 ET suggests rejection of bearish pressure during a sharp sell-off. The 4.64–4.66 level has shown recurring support, suggesting a possible 4.72–4.74 consolidation base ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA, confirming a short-term bullish bias. Daily MAs show the 50DMA at 4.75 and the 200DMA at 4.68, suggesting the pair is above its key trendline. This indicates a longer-term bull trend could be in place, especially as the 100DMA has recently crossed above the 200DMA.

MACD & RSI

RSI peaked at 76 near 09:00 ET, entering overbought territory and suggesting a potential pause or correction. The MACD line crossed above the signal line during the 08:15–09:00 ET rally, with positive divergence emerging as volume declined during the peak. This may signal a slowing in momentum, but as long as RSI remains above 50, the bullish trend could continue.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 08:15–09:30 ET surge, with the upper band reaching 4.96. The price closed near the upper band at 4.83, suggesting the rally may be near exhaustion. A contraction in band width is expected during consolidation, potentially setting up for a new breakout or reversal pattern.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 289,390 at 08:45 ET during the bullish engulfing pattern, confirming strength in the move higher. However, turnover dipped during the 10:15–10:30 ET pullback, signaling a possible short-term top. Divergence between price and volume during the consolidation phase suggests caution ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 38.2% retracement level aligns with 4.79–4.81, and the 61.8% level at 4.74–4.76 has become a key area of attention. If the price retests the 4.72–4.74 level without breaking it, a bounce toward 4.84–4.88 could follow. A breakdown below 4.72 may target 4.68–4.70.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves a long entry on the close of a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed by a 20SMA crossover above the 50SMA and RSI above 55. A stop loss is placed at the low of the engulfing pattern, and a take profit is set at the next Fibonacci retracement level (38.2% or 61.8%). This strategy aligns well with the recent 08:45–09:00 ET engulfing pattern and confirms a potential long trade in the current market structure.