Market Overview for Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) - 24-Hour Technical Analysis

• Price surged from 4.883 to 5.130, then consolidated near 4.914 at 12:00 ET.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed between 20:45–21:00 ET, followed by a sharp correction.
• Volume spiked at 04:30 ET (487,663 units) but failed to sustain the momentum.
• RSI overbought at 76 before a pullback to 54, indicating potential short-term reversal.
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent contraction, suggesting low volatility ahead of a breakout.

24-Hour Price Action and Volume Snapshot

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18, the Plume/Turkish Lira pair (PLUMETRY) opened at 4.883, surged to a high of 5.130, and closed at 4.914 after forming a sharp intraday correction. The total volume over the 24-hour window was 14,249,659 units, with notional turnover reaching ~69,678,319 TRY, based on an average price of ~4.90.

Structure and Candlestick Formations

Key support levels formed at 4.90–4.91 and 4.88–4.89, with the former showing repeated rejection. Resistance was tested at 4.95–4.96 and 5.03–5.04, with the last bearish rejection coming after a sharp move down from 5.130 to 4.964. A bullish engulfing candle at 20:45–21:00 ET (5.043–5.055) was followed by a sharp correction, suggesting short-term bearish pressure. A doji at 00:00–00:15 ET near 5.035 indicates indecision at the top.

Moving Averages and Trends

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a bullish crossover into the early hours of the day but later diverged as price pulled back. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 100-day lines remain above the 200-day MA, suggesting a long-term bullish trend, but the recent price action may test this setup.

Momentum and Volatility Indicators

The MACD crossed above the signal line around 00:15–00:30 ET, confirming early morning bullish momentum, but later turned bearish as price declined. The RSI reached 76, indicating overbought conditions, before dropping to 54, a neutral zone. Bollinger Bands showed a tight squeeze (volatility contraction) in the 04:00–05:00 ET window, followed by a potential breakout at 05:00–05:15 ET. Price remains within the 1σ range as of 12:00 ET.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

The recent 15-minute swing from 4.883 to 5.130 shows 38.2% (4.998) and 61.8% (5.035) retracement levels, both of which have served as short-term resistance. A Fibonacci extension at 4.90–4.91 appears to be a key support. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retest of the 4.95–4.96 level may come into play in the next 24 hours.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume spiked sharply at 04:30–04:45 ET (487,663 units), but the price failed to maintain an upward move, resulting in a volume divergence, a bearish sign. Later, at 08:30–08:45 ET, another high-volume candle formed around 4.935–4.967, which appears to be a continuation of bearish pressure.

Outlook and Risk Consideration

The price may test the 4.90–4.91 support zone in the near term, with a potential bounce or breakdown expected. A break below 4.89 could trigger a test of 4.86, based on earlier 15-minute support levels. Traders should also watch for a bears’ trap if volume fails to confirm a further pullback. Volatility remains elevated, and sudden reversals are likely if a breakout occurs.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy involving MACD crossovers and RSI thresholds could be effective given the recent price action. A long position is triggered when MACD(12,26,9) crosses above the signal line and RSI < 55**, with a stop-loss placed below the most recent 15-minute low. A short position is triggered when **MACD** crosses below the signal line and **RSI > 65, with a stop above the 15-minute high. This strategy would have captured the early morning rally and the afternoon pullback, offering a potential risk-reward ratio of ~1.2–1.4.