Market Overview for Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY): 24-Hour Breakout and Momentum Divergence

• PLUMETRY surged 28% in 24 hours, breaking above 5.40 with bullish momentum.
• High volatility seen with strong volume clusters above 5.35, confirming the rally.
• RSI hit overbought territory, indicating potential pullback risk.
• Price remains above key 20-period MA on 15-min chart, signaling continuation bias.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly, reflecting heightened short-term uncertainty.

The Plume/Turkish Lira pair, trading under the ticker PLUMETRY, opened at 5.259 on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 5.377 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a high of 5.631, a low of 5.186, and a total volume of 10,067,820 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 52,614,645 TRL.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data reveals a clear bullish trend, with price forming multiple engulfing patterns after the 08:30 ET hour, signaling a continuation of the upward move. A key resistance level was identified at 5.40, which was decisively breached following a large-volume bullish candle at 08:30 ET. The price then moved toward 5.631, a new intra-day high, before retreating slightly. A notable bearish divergence appears in the final hours with a long upper shadow after 15:00 ET, suggesting a possible pause or reversal could be on the horizon. A strong support level is visible at 5.35, where the price found a base multiple times. A doji formed around 14:00 ET, indicating indecision and potential exhaustion of the bullish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA and 50-period MA are both trending upward, with price consistently above both, confirming a bullish trend. The 20 MA appears to offer dynamic support and was tested twice during the day, resulting in bounces that pushed the price higher. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at approximately 5.32, with the 100-period MA at 5.30 and the 200-period MA at 5.29, all underscoring a strong bias to the upside.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has moved decisively above the signal line in the latter half of the day, with the histogram showing increasing bullish momentum. However, the RSI has surged to overbought levels, reaching as high as 78 near 09:00 ET. This overbought condition raises the risk of a near-term pullback, particularly if volume begins to taper off and price action becomes choppy.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show a clear expansion throughout the day, especially between 08:00 and 10:00 ET, indicating rising volatility. The price frequently moved outside the upper band, a bullish signal, but began consolidating closer to the middle band in the final 5 hours. This consolidation may reflect a pause in the rally and could precede a potential correction or a continuation with renewed volume.

Volume & Turnover

The total 15-minute volume over 24 hours was 10,067,820 units, with the highest volume spike occurring between 08:30 and 08:45 ET, as price moved from 5.602 to 5.555. This period saw significant notional turnover, which confirmed the move higher. However, after 14:00 ET, volume began to wane even as price continued to trade above 5.40, indicating potential momentum divergence. The final candle before the 24-hour mark showed a bearish pinocchio with high turnover, a sign of potential profit-taking or short-term bearish pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the intra-day swing from 5.186 to 5.631, the 50% retracement level at 5.407 was decisively taken out by 08:30 ET. The 61.8% level at 5.353 and the 38.2% level at 5.407 were both confirmed by price action. Price then found support at 5.353 twice, suggesting this level could serve as a critical floor in the short term. Looking ahead, a break below 5.30 would trigger a deeper correction, potentially targeting the 38.2% retracement level at 5.353 again.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for this market would focus on breakout confirmation using the 20-period MA as a filter. The strategy would look to enter long on a close above the 20 MA with a stop just below the most recent swing low. Given the recent 15-minute price action, such a strategy would have entered near 5.27–5.30 with a stop below 5.24, capturing the subsequent 28% move to 5.63. This approach would also incorporate a RSI divergence filter to avoid entering into overbought territory. With a strong volume confirmation on the breakout and divergence on the RSI, the strategy could have captured the entire move while managing risk with a tight stop.