Market Overview: Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) 24-Hour Analysis

Summary
• Price dropped 20.8% over 24 hours, closing at 2.512 after a sharp selloff in the overnight session.
• Volatility increased sharply as price tested key support levels below 2.50.
• Heavy volume and negative divergence suggest bearish momentum is likely to continue.

The PLUMETRY pair opened at 2.609 at 12:00 ET - 1 and peaked at 2.776 before closing at 2.512 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 1,261,715.0, while notional turnover amounted to approximately 3,053,201.2 TRL over the past 24 hours. A clear bearish trend emerged as price collapsed below key resistance at 2.72 and found support near 2.50.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a large bearish engulfing pattern near the high of 2.776 before retracing sharply lower. A bearish divergence became evident with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2.506 acting as temporary support. The formation of a bear trap suggests further weakness could follow as price consolidates near 2.50.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed lower, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA, signaling a potential bear market phase. Price currently trades well below key moving averages, suggesting short-term continuation of the downward trend is likely.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line in the early hours, confirming bearish momentum. RSI moved into oversold territory around 27–30, suggesting a potential short-term bounce could be on the cards. However, given the heavy volume and lack of bullish confirmation, a rebound is more likely to be a bearish continuation pattern than a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as price broke below the lower Bollinger Band, confirming a breakdown in momentum. Price has remained within the bands for most of the session but has now entered a period of high volatility. A retest of the 2.50 level could trigger further expansion or contraction depending on order flow.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sharp sell-off in the overnight session, particularly between 00:00 and 04:00 ET. Notional turnover spiked during this period, reinforcing the bearish signal. Price and volume moved in line, suggesting the selloff is structural and not just a temporary dip.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% and 61.8% retracements from the recent high at 2.776 were tested around 2.655 and 2.506, respectively. Price found support at 2.506 before breaking lower, suggesting further downside may target the 2.45–2.47 range. A breakdown below 2.45 could trigger a deeper correction into the 2.35–2.40 area.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the lack of RSI data for PLUMETRY, a backtest using a price-based strategy could be implemented—such as a 3-day hold rule triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern or a break below the 2.50 level. This approach may simulate a RSI-based sell signal by using volume spikes and Fibonacci support levels to time exits. Testing from 2022–01–01 to 2025–11–03 could offer insight into the effectiveness of this strategy in high-volatility environments.