Market Overview: Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) - 24-Hour Analysis

• PLUMETRY declined 24 hours, breaking below 4.30 and reaching a session low of 4.07 on heavy volume.
• Momentum indicators show bearish divergence, with RSI approaching oversold territory and MACD signaling downward momentum.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening and price consolidating near the lower band.
• High volume sell-offs occurred during the overnight hours, suggesting increased distribution or bearish sentiment.
• Key support at 4.10 appears tested, with a potential bounce or breakdown possible in the near term.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25, Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) opened at 4.299, reached a high of 4.454, a low of 4.042, and closed at 4.112, marking a -4.08% decline over 24 hours. Total volume amounted to 1,662,526.0 units, with notional turnover totaling $6,893,881.60 (calculated as the sum of high × volume per candle). The pair has shown a clear bearish bias, with price consolidating near its 24-hour low and key support levels under pressure.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data reveals a bearish structure, with PLUMETRY forming a bearish engulfing pattern during the late evening hours (23:45–00:00) as price closed near the session low. A shooting star pattern emerged at 4.454 during the afternoon, signaling rejection of higher levels. Notable support levels include 4.10–4.12, where price found temporary buyers, while 4.30–4.32 acted as resistance earlier in the session. A doji at 4.30 (20:45) and 4.12 (03:30) indicates indecision and potential turning points. Price has formed a descending triangle within the 4.30–4.04 range, suggesting further bearish action if the lower trendline breaks.

Moving Averages & Fibonacci Retracements

Using 15-minute data, PLUMETRY closed below key short-term moving averages: the 20SMA at ~4.28 and the 50SMA at ~4.31. On a daily basis, the 50DMA is near 4.35, the 100DMA at 4.40, and the 200DMA around 4.45, indicating PLUMETRY is trading below all major long-term averages in bearish territory. Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 4.454–4.042 range show 4.135 (38.2%) and 4.078 (61.8%) as key levels. Price has tested and bounced from 4.10 but remains under pressure near the 61.8% retracement. A breakdown below 4.07 could target the 4.00 level or lower.

MACD & RSI

The 12/26 MACD is in bearish territory, with the histogram expanding below zero during the overnight and early morning sell-off, confirming downward momentum. The RSI is currently at ~33, approaching oversold territory but not yet triggering a reversal signal. However, a bearish divergence has emerged between RSI and price, with RSI failing to make new lows despite the price making new bearish territory. This suggests further downward momentum may be ahead unless a strong bullish reversal occurs.

Volatility & Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening from ~4.28–4.38 to ~4.04–4.22 during the sell-off. PLUMETRY has spent the last 6 hours consolidating near the lower Bollinger Band (4.09–4.12), suggesting a potential rebound or continuation. The ATR (15-min) is at ~0.035, indicating a relatively tight range. A breakout above the upper band (4.14–4.16) could trigger a short-term reversal, but bearish pressure remains strong.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when PLUMETRY closes below the 20SMA with volume above the 14-day average and RSI below 50. A stop-loss is placed above the 20SMA, and a take-profit is set at the next Fibonacci level. Given the current context—PLUMETRY trading below the 20SMA and RSI near oversold—this setup appears favorable for a short-term bearish trade. However, a bullish breakout from 4.10–4.12 could invalidate the signal.