Market Overview for Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) on 2025-10-12

• Price declined sharply from 3.835 to 3.390 before rebounding into consolidation near 3.45.
• Volume surged during the downtrend but diminished after 05:00 ET, suggesting reduced momentum.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions around 3.39, aligning with the low-volume bounce.
• Bollinger Bands contracted during consolidation, hinting at a potential breakout.
• No strong bullish reversal patterns emerged; bearish pressure remains dominant.

The Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) pair opened at 3.745 on 2025-10-11 at 16:00 ET and fell to a 24-hour low of 3.390 before recovering slightly to close at 3.415 by 12:00 ET on October 12. The total 24-hour volume amounted to approximately 6,885,071.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 23,476,624.5 Turkish Lira. Price action reflects a bearish bias with intermittent bullish attempts.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure showed a strong bearish bias throughout the first half of the period, with multiple long-bodied bars and a significant breakdown from 3.835 to 3.390. A key support level appears to form around 3.39–3.42, where price has bounced twice with limited follow-through. No major bullish reversal patterns were identified, though a small bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 3.43–3.42, reinforcing the near-term bearish sentiment. A doji formed at 3.456, suggesting indecision but failing to trigger a reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both remained well below the current price, supporting the bearish trend. A bearish crossover occurred at 19:30 ET (2025-10-11), which preceded the steep decline to the 3.390 low. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period moving averages have not yet aligned into a strong downtrend configuration, but PLUMETRY appears to be trending below all key MAs, which may continue to suppress upward momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative early in the period and remained below the signal line, with bearish divergences visible during the decline. The RSI dropped to 26.5 near 3.39, indicating an oversold condition. While this could support a short-term bounce, the weak follow-through volume suggests that the oversold reading is more likely to result in a consolidation rather than a reversal. The MACD histogram has contracted during the 05:00–10:00 ET consolidation phase, indicating reduced momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly during the sharp decline from 3.835 to 3.390, reflecting increased volatility. Price has since settled near the middle band with the upper and lower bands diverging, suggesting a potential breakout. However, the current consolidation between 3.41–3.46 appears to be within a normal volatility range, with no immediate sign of a directional break.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sharp decline, peaking at 749,470.0 units between 19:30 and 21:45 ET as PLUMETRY dropped below 3.55. However, volume has since declined sharply, with little follow-through after 05:00 ET despite the RSI entering oversold territory. This divergence suggests weak conviction among buyers, and the lack of strong turnover at the 3.41–3.46 level indicates that the market may continue to consolidate or even retest key support levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 3.835 to 3.390, the 38.2% level is at ~3.556 and the 61.8% level at ~3.465. PLUMETRY has recently traded near the 61.8% level at 3.465, with mixed volume confirmation. A retest of the 38.2% retracement could offer a potential short-term bounce opportunity if buy volume reappears. On the daily chart, retracement levels have not yet been tested due to the current bearish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves identifying key Fibonacci retracement levels and combining them with overbought/oversold RSI signals for entry points. A long entry could be considered at 3.41–3.42 if RSI stabilizes above 30 with a bullish divergence and volume increases. A stop-loss would be placed at 3.39 or lower if bearish momentum resumes. A short position could be triggered if PLUMETRY breaks below 3.40 with strong volume and MACD divergence, with a target at the next support level near 3.35. This approach relies on confirming signals across multiple indicators to minimize false triggers.