Market Overview for Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) – 2025-10-11

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• PLUMETRY traded lower from a 4.105 high to a 3.879 low before recovering to close at 3.961, forming a bearish engulfing pattern in early hours.
• Price tested a key support at ~3.535 (rebound), with a 21-hour bullish reversal from 3.0–2.0 range suggesting short-term oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded significantly after 19:30 ET, with ~3.1M volume candles indicating heightened market activity.
• RSI crossed oversold levels below 30 for 2 hours before a rebound, while MACD showed bearish divergence in early hours and bullish divergence in late trading.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the 3.0–3.685 rebound, indicating renewed buying interest after a sharp breakdown.

Opening Narrative

Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) opened at 3.984 on 2025-10-10 at 16:00 ET and reached a high of 4.105 before closing at 3.961 on 12:00 ET the following day. The pair experienced a 24-hour low of 3.879, with a total trading volume of ~44.5 million units and an estimated turnover of approximately $134.5 million (based on average price of ~3.03).

Structure and Formations

PLUMETRY displayed a volatile 24-hour session, with early bullish momentum turning bearish after a sharp breakdown from 4.105 to 3.879. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:30 ET, followed by a bullish reversal at 21:00 ET as price rebounded from a critical support level at ~3.535. The formation of a hammer candle at 3.535 signaled a potential bottoming process. A key resistance zone formed around the 4.0–4.1 level, with retracement levels at 3.89–3.94 indicating consolidation in the final hours.

Moving Averages and Volatility

A 15-minute chart analysis showed the 20-period MA (4.01) and 50-period MA (4.03) forming a bearish crossover around 20:00 ET. For daily chart reference, the 50-period MA (4.07), 100-period MA (4.09), and 200-period MA (4.11) indicated that the current price (3.961) is in a short-term bearish phase, below key moving average support. Bollinger Bands widened dramatically during the 3.535–3.685 rebound, indicating increased volatility and a potential turning point in price behavior.

MACD and RSI Analysis

The 15-minute MACD showed bearish divergence during the 19:30–21:00 ET breakdown and a bullish crossover after 21:30 ET as the price rebounded. RSI oscillated between 20–35 for much of the session, hitting a low of 22.4 at 21:30 ET, before recovering to 52 at the close, indicating an oversold rebound. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 3.94 aligned with RSI's 50 level, suggesting possible consolidation.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Trading volume surged after 19:30 ET with a 243,770-unit candle, followed by a 579,680-unit candle at 21:00 ET—two of the highest-volume candles of the session. Notional turnover also spiked during these hours, with a 21-hour rebound from 3.0–2.0 levels supported by high-volume buying. However, volume dropped after 09:00 ET, indicating waning momentum during the late morning. Price and turnover moved in alignment during the 21:00–04:00 ET rebound, suggesting strong conviction in the move.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the major 15-minute swing from 3.535 to 4.105, 38.2% at 3.89 and 61.8% at 3.94 acted as key psychological levels. The price closed at 3.961, slightly above the 61.8% level, suggesting potential for a rebound or consolidation within this zone. Daily retracements from the recent high of 4.105 to the low of 3.879 show the 50% level at 3.99, where PLUMETRY may test again in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on Fibonacci retracement levels and volume confirmation appears viable for short-term trading on the 15-minute chart. The hypothesis suggests entering long positions when price rebounds from the 61.8% retracement level (e.g., 3.94) with a bullish MACD crossover and above-average volume. Stop-loss could be placed below the 38.2% retracement (3.89) with a target at the 50-period MA (4.03). A similar short strategy could be triggered on bearish divergence at 4.0–4.1, supported by bearish engulfing patterns.