Market Overview for Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) on 2025-10-05

• PLUMETRY traded in a 24-hour range of 4.02–4.276, closing near 4.151 after a volatile midday rally.
• Strong bullish momentum emerged post-overnight lows, with price reclaiming key 15-minute resistance levels.
• Volume spiked to 70,252 at the 15:00 ET session high, confirming strong short-term interest in the pair.
• MACD turned bullish during the midday push, while RSI remained in neutral to overbought ranges, suggesting a possible correction.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the 21:00–09:00 ET window, reflecting increased volatility and potential for a breakout or pullback.

24-Hour Price and Volume Summary

Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) opened at 4.02 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 4.276, a low of 4.02, and closed near 4.151 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET. Total volume amounted to 1,294,722.0 units, while notional turnover totaled 5,427,529.51 TRL over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a strong upward thrust from the 4.02 level, where a long-bodied bullish candle followed a bearish engulfing pattern. A strong bullish reversal was confirmed by a hammer formation at the 4.02 level early in the session. Resistance levels at 4.126 and 4.275 were tested, with the latter briefly holding before a pullback. A bearish divergence on RSI at the 4.275 high suggests caution ahead of a potential correction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price spent much of the session above the 20-period SMA, but closed near the 50-period SMA, indicating a mixed short-term bias. The 50-period SMA at 4.16 acted as a dynamic support zone during the early 2025-10-05 trading hours, while the 200-period daily SMA currently sits at ~4.14, coinciding with the 24-hour close. The price remains above this key level, suggesting the trend remains intact for now.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bullish during the 03:30–07:00 ET window, with a positive histogram forming alongside strong price action. RSI surged into overbought territory (>65) by 05:30 ET but pulled back to 55 by 12:00 ET, indicating potential exhaustion in the rally. A bearish crossover on the 15-minute RSI and a flattening MACD line suggest near-term profit-taking could trigger a pullback toward 4.10–4.12.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a long position when the 20-period SMA crosses above the 50-period SMA (golden cross) on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below the previous swing low and a target at the next Fibonacci retracement level. Over the last 24 hours, the 4.02–4.276 swing provided multiple retest opportunities, with a golden cross occurring at 03:30 ET. The strategy would have captured the 4.02–4.276 move but risked a stop-out if the 4.02 level had failed. Given the recent support at 4.02–4.10 and the 61.8% retracement at ~4.14, this strategy could see moderate success if the pair remains above 4.10.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly between 21:00 ET on 2025-10-04 and 09:00 ET on 2025-10-05, with the bands widening by over 30% and the price trading near the upper band for several hours. A contraction occurred after 09:00 ET, with price settling closer to the middle band. This contraction could signal a potential breakout or continuation in either direction, depending on volume and order flow.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume spike occurred at 05:30 ET (15-minute chart), with 100,759 units traded alongside a high of 4.276. This was followed by a sharp drop in volume as price retracted toward 4.15–4.18, indicating potential profit-taking. Notional turnover remained elevated during the 03:00–07:00 ET session, with a clear correlation between rising prices and increased turnover. A divergence between price and turnover emerged after the 07:00 ET peak, hinting at reduced conviction in the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% retracement of the 4.02–4.276 swing sits at ~4.14, which the price held at close. The 38.2% level at ~4.19 provided resistance during the morning session, and a failure to break above this level suggests caution ahead. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the broader 2025-09–2025-10 range sits near 4.18, aligning with key psychological support/resistance.

Outlook and Risk Caveat

PLUMETRY may consolidate near 4.14–4.18 in the next 24 hours, with a potential retest of the 4.02 level if a breakdown occurs. A move above 4.20 could signal renewed bullish momentum. Traders should monitor the 4.10–4.12 range for signs of a potential reversal. As always, a sharp increase in volume or a break of key support could trigger unexpected volatility.