Market Overview for Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) – 2025-09-27

• PLUMETRY surged to a 24-hour high of 4.325, but reversed to close near 4.15, amid high volatility and volume spikes.
• Key resistance formed around 4.30, while support appears at 4.13–4.15, with bearish momentum gaining traction.
• Volume spiked 10x in the session, concentrated in 4.218–4.264 range, confirming price action.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions at session lows, but MACD divergence raises caution.
• Bollinger Bands show tightening volatility before key breakouts, suggesting potential range expansion.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-26, PLUMETRY opened at 4.05, hit a 24-hour high of 4.325, and closed at 4.15 at 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-27. The pair traded between 4.043 and 4.325, with total volume of 1.397M and notional turnover of 5.69M Turkish Lira over 24 hours. Price action showed a sharp rally to 4.325 followed by a retracement to key support near 4.15, indicating internal conflict in sentiment.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bullish breakout above 4.215, followed by a bearish reversal with a large bearish engulfing pattern forming near 4.26–4.29. Key support levels identified at 4.15 (multiple tests), 4.12 (prior consolidation), and 4.09 (psychological). Resistance is now at 4.215–4.26 with a failed attempt at 4.325. The formation of a doji at 4.325–4.304 suggests indecision among buyers at recent highs.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (20MA and 50MA) crossed to the upside during the rally to 4.325, but have since crossed back to the downside. This bearish crossover suggests short-term momentum is shifting against bulls. On the daily chart, the price remains below the 50DMA and 200DMA, indicating a broader bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover and negative divergence between price and the histogram during the retracement to 4.15. RSI reached 33 at the session low, indicating oversold territory but with bearish momentum not fully exhausted. This suggests traders may be wary of another short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the initial breakout to 4.325 and later compressed during the retracement phase. Price closed near the lower Bollinger band at 4.15, indicating a potential bounce. A move above the 4.215–4.26 range could trigger a retest of the 4.26–4.304 upper band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 4.215–4.264 price range with a single 15-minute candle (18:30 ET) showing over 83,000 units traded. This volume supported the price action at that level but failed to carry it above 4.30. Total notional turnover was concentrated during the 18:00–20:00 ET period, indicating heavy participation during the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 4.05–4.325 swing, key retracement levels include 4.24 (38.2%), 4.17 (61.8%), and 4.13 (78.6%). Price stalled near 4.218, close to 38.2% retracement, and fell back to 4.15–4.13, aligning with the 61.8%–78.6% level, suggesting a strong support area. A break below 4.13 could target 4.09–4.07.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on short-term momentum using a 20-period and 50-period EMA crossover on a 15-minute chart. A long signal is generated when the 20EMA crosses above the 50EMA, with a stop-loss placed at the recent swing low and a take-profit at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. A short signal is triggered when the 20EMA crosses below the 50EMA, with a stop-loss at the recent high and a target at 61.8% retracement. This strategy aligns with today’s observed price behavior, particularly the 18:00–20:00 ET rally, where the 20EMA briefly crossed above the 50EMA before bearish pressure took over.