Market Overview for PIVX/Bitcoin (PIVXBTC) on 2025-10-11

• PIVX/Bitcoin declined from 2.48e-06 to 1.57e-06 over 24 hours, with a bearish bias and oversold RSI conditions.
• Volatility expanded during a mid-day sell-off, with high-volume moves below key support levels.
• Price closed near session lows, indicating weak short-term momentum and bearish sentiment.
• Bollinger Bands widened sharply after the 21:30 ET breakdown, signaling increased uncertainty.
• MACD turned negative with a bearish crossover, while volume surged during the breakdown of the 2.13e-06 support level.

PIVX/Bitcoin opened at 2.47e-06 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET and closed at 1.59e-06 on 2025-10-11 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 2.69e-06 and a low of 1.55e-06 during the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 12,931,431, and notional turnover was approximately $2.04 (based on Bitcoin’s closing price).

The price trend was decisively bearish, with a sharp breakdown occurring around 21:30 ET as price closed below the 2.13e-06 level. This move was accompanied by a spike in volume and a wide-range candle with a long lower wick, signaling a failed attempt to retest key support. On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages were both bearish, with price below both. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic resistance during the recovery attempts.

Structure & Formations

PIVXBTC formed a bearish engulfing pattern after 21:30 ET, confirming a breakdown. Key support levels identified include 2.13e-06 and 2.02e-06, both of which were tested and failed. Resistance levels are now 2.18e-06 and 2.33e-06, which may see renewed pressure if price recovers. A doji appeared after 07:15 ET, indicating indecision among traders but not enough to reverse the trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, reflecting sustained bearish pressure. The 50-period MA acted as a short-term resistance line during bounce attempts. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs were all bearish, with price below all of them, reinforcing the longer-term downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish with a crossover below the zero line during the breakdown. Negative divergence between price and the MACD line was observed, suggesting further bearish momentum. The RSI bottomed around 25–30 during the session lows, indicating oversold conditions. However, the RSI failed to make a strong rebound, suggesting weak follow-through buying and a potential continuation of the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 21:30 ET as price broke below the lower band, confirming a sharp bearish move. The Bollinger Band contraction had been observed in the morning hours, which typically precedes a breakout. Price remained below the midline for most of the session, indicating a strong bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover
Volume spiked during the breakdown below 2.13e-06 and remained elevated through the session’s close. The high-volume move at 21:30 ET confirmed the breakdown, with a large notional turnover. Price and turnover were in alignment, with no major divergences observed. The volume profile suggests strong distribution pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the recent high of 2.69e-06 to the session low of 1.55e-06 identified key retracement levels. The 61.8% retracement level is around 2.35e-06 and was tested twice during the session but failed as resistance. The 38.2% level is at 2.46e-06 and acted as a short-term overhead line.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the breakdown of the 2.13e-06 support as a sell trigger, combined with a bearish engulfing pattern confirmation. A stop-loss above 2.18e-06 could be placed, with a target at the 2.02e-06 level. Given the RSI’s oversold reading, a tight stop could be justified. This approach would align with the observed momentum, structure, and volume signals, making it a viable short-term bearish strategy.