Market Overview: Phala Network/Tether (PHAUSDT) – 2025-10-08

• Price opened at $0.0972, rose to $0.0993, declined to $0.0960, and closed at $0.0976.
• Strong buying pressure seen mid-session, followed by a sharp correction in overnight hours.
• Volatility spiked midday, with volume peaking at 555,154 PHA.
• RSI suggested overbought conditions during the rally, followed by bearish divergence later.
• Bollinger Bands indicated a period of compression before the sharp drop.

Phala Network/Tether (PHAUSDT) opened at $0.0972 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0976 the following day at the same hour. The 24-hour candle formed a bullish harami pattern, with a high of $0.0993 and a low of $0.0960. Total volume traded was 10,822,582 PHA, and notional turnover reached approximately $1,037,735 USD (calculated from volume × average price).

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period featured a distinct two-phase move: a strong midday bullish surge and a late-night bearish pullback. A key resistance level was identified near $0.0983–$0.0984, where the asset struggled to maintain gains after the initial rally. A potential support area appears near $0.0971–$0.0975, which held multiple times during the correction. A bearish engulfing pattern formed in the late hours of October 7, suggesting a potential near-term reversal. A doji appeared near $0.0973–$0.0975, indicating indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA acted as a dynamic support during the pullback, while the 50-period MA remained flat. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period MAs were still in a bullish alignment, suggesting the longer-term trend remains intact. The 100-period MA on the daily chart may act as a potential barrier for further bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a strong positive divergence during the midday rally, confirming bullish momentum. However, the histogram later contracted as the price declined, signaling waning bullish pressure. The RSI peaked above 70 during the rally, indicating overbought conditions. A bearish divergence followed as the RSI failed to make higher highs despite the price bouncing around $0.0983. This suggests that bulls may be running out of steam.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply after 17:45 ET as the price surged past $0.0989. The bands then widened significantly before the price began to consolidate. The closing price of $0.0976 was near the lower half of the Bollinger Band, indicating a potential overcorrection. A contraction in the band width is now forming, suggesting a period of consolidation may precede the next directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the midday rally, especially at 17:45 ET, where 555,154 PHA was traded. The subsequent bearish move saw moderate volume, with the largest turnover occurring after the price dropped below $0.0975. Notional turnover reached a peak around $0.0989–$0.0983 as the price approached its intraday high. Divergence between the price and volume during the late-night decline suggests bearish conviction may be strengthening.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the $0.0960 to $0.0993 swing revealed a 61.8% level near $0.0979, which the price tested but failed to hold. A 38.2% retracement level at $0.0975 served as a short-term floor. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the broader bullish move from previous weeks remains a watch level at $0.0966–$0.0970.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish breakout above the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a rising RSI and increasing volume. A stop-loss could be placed just below the most recent support level, while a take-profit would aim at the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the swing. Conversely, a short entry could be triggered on a bearish divergence in RSI and MACD, with the 50-period MA acting as a dynamic support barrier. This approach would test the reliability of momentum indicators in confirming trend continuation or reversal in a low-cap asset like PHAUSDT.