Market Overview for Perpetual Protocol/Tether (PERPUSDT)

• PERPUSDT declined sharply on heavy volume, dropping from 0.2738 to 0.2597 over 24 hours.
• Strong bearish momentum was confirmed by RSI and MACD divergence.
• Volatility expanded during the drop, with a 15-minute candle reaching 0.267–0.2588.
• Notional turnover surged as price moved lower, indicating increased selling pressure.
• Key support at 0.2588 and resistance at 0.2717 are critical for near-term direction.

Perpetual Protocol/Tether (PERPUSDT) opened at 0.2738 (12:00 ET − 1) and closed at 0.2597 by 12:00 ET today. The 24-hour low hit 0.2588, while the high was 0.2748. Total volume reached 1,031,336.02, with a notional turnover of $278,789.87, reflecting strong bearish conviction.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a strong bearish trend, with a key support level forming around 0.2588, reinforced by a long lower wick on the 07:45–08:00 candle. A potential short-term resistance is at 0.2717, where the price previously failed to hold. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 08:15–08:30, confirming the continuation of the downward trend. A doji at 06:30–06:45 may indicate a minor pause, but bearish momentum quickly resumed.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (0.2665) and 50-period MA (0.2694) are both below the price, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (0.2712), 100-period MA (0.2734), and 200-period MA (0.2746) suggest the trend is well below its longer-term averages, indicating a deep correction.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD has turned deeply bearish, with the histogram widening as the downtrend accelerates. RSI is in oversold territory (34–38) but continues to fall, suggesting further weakness. Momentum appears to be exhausting, but the RSI has not yet bounced, which may delay a near-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as the price broke lower, with the 15-minute Bollinger Bands widening from a narrow range of ±0.0005 to ±0.0020. The price closed just above the lower band at 0.2588, suggesting potential for a bounce, but without a clear reversal pattern, bearish continuation is more likely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased dramatically during the selloff, particularly from 07:45–09:00, when price moved from 0.2677 to 0.2597 on heavy volume. Notional turnover spiked from $6,000 to over $140,000 during the 07:45–09:00 session, showing strong conviction among sellers. No divergence was observed between price and volume, confirming the bearish narrative.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing from 0.2748 to 0.2588, key levels include 38.2% at 0.2674, 50.0% at 0.2668, and 61.8% at 0.2662. Price tested the 50.0% level at 0.2668 before declining further, suggesting that this level may provide some near-term resistance on a rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy focusing on bearish engulfing patterns and RSI in oversold territory could offer potential for short-term trades. The 08:15–08:30 bearish engulfing candle, combined with RSI at 41, may have triggered a sell signal. If confirmed by a close below the lower band and a continued bearish MA crossover, this setup could be part of a trend-following system with stop-loss placement above the 0.2619 level.