Market Overview: Perpetual Protocol/Tether (PERPUSDT) 24-Hour Price Action

Summary
• Price declined from 0.1613 to 0.1466, ending near lower end of range.
• High volatility seen in early morning ET with a sharp drop to 0.1469.
• Volume spiked during the decline, indicating active bearish pressure.
• RSI and MACD suggest potential oversold conditions.
• Key support appears to be consolidating around the 0.142–0.145 level.

Market Overview

Perpetual Protocol/Tether (PERPUSDT) opened at 0.1613 on 2025-11-03 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.1616, fell to a low of 0.1378, and closed at 0.1466 by 2025-11-04 12:00 ET. Total volume amounted to 9,647,914.46, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,414,954. The pair appears to have been under bearish control for much of the 24-hour period, with a sharp decline in the early morning hours followed by a consolidation in the afternoon and evening.

The price action shows a clear breakdown from a prior consolidation range, indicating heightened bearish sentiment. Key support levels appear to be emerging around 0.142–0.145, where the asset has found a floor in the past 24 hours. Notably, several engulfing patterns and long lower shadows on the candlesticks suggest rejection of lower prices, though bearish momentum remains strong.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trend downward, confirming the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA appears to act as a resistance level, as price failed to retest the upper end of the range seen in the 24-hour period. The 50-period MA on the daily chart is also sloping downward, suggesting a continuation of bearish pressure in the near term.

Momentum Indicators

The RSI approached the oversold level (30) during the sharp decline to 0.1469, suggesting a potential short-term rebound. MACD remains in negative territory with a bearish crossover, indicating that selling pressure remains intact. However, the divergence between the price low and the RSI low suggests that the bearish momentum could weaken in the near term, potentially setting up a corrective bounce.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the sharp drop in the early morning hours, signaling a spike in volatility. Price has since consolidated around the lower band, with a few test attempts. This setup suggests that the market is pricing in a high-probability range-bound continuation or a potential rebound from the lower band.

Volume and Turnover

Volume increased sharply during the decline, confirming bearish conviction, but dropped off during the consolidation phase. This divergence between price and volume may indicate that the bearish momentum is losing steam. Turnover also spiked during the early morning drop, suggesting significant liquidation activity at lower levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from 0.1616 to 0.1378, the 61.8% level sits at 0.1474—very close to the 24-hour close. This level appears to have acted as a temporary floor, with the price bouncing from it multiple times. The 50% retracement at 0.1496 may act as a short-term resistance, while the 38.2% at 0.1532 could offer a potential entry for bears if a breakdown occurs.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent price action and RSI divergence, a potential backtesting strategy could involve identifying “Bullish Engulfing” candlestick patterns on the 15-minute chart to signal potential short-covering and counter-trend bounces. While the data provider does not currently offer pre-calculated Bullish Engulfing dates, the pattern can be derived manually using the OHLC data. Alternatively, a simpler approach using an RSI oversold crossover may provide similar signals with less complexity. A backtest could focus on entering long positions after a confirmed RSI cross-up above 30, with a stop-loss placed below a key support level and a take-profit target at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This approach aligns with the bearish structure and could be used to test the validity of short-term counter-trend trades.