Market Overview for PEPEJPY (Pepe/Yen) – 2025-10-03

• Price surged 0.68% from $0.001457 to $0.001464 on high-volume consolidation in late ET trading
• RSI reached 56 after midday rally, indicating moderate momentum with no overbought conditions
• Bollinger Band contraction observed post-10:00 ET suggests potential breakout ahead
• High volatility seen in 19:00–20:00 ET range with $0.001513 high and $0.001504 low
• Volume spiked at 02:00 ET with 2.04B units traded, coinciding with 0.7% price drop

The Pepe/Yen pair (PEPEJPY) opened at $0.001457 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.001464 one day later at the same time. The 24-hour range was $0.001457 to $0.001513, with a total trading volume of 8.72 billion PEPE and a notional turnover of approximately $13.08 million.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern shows a bullish consolidation with a key support level identified at $0.001463 and a resistance at $0.001513. A strong bullish engulfing pattern is visible at 19:15–19:30 ET as the price surged from $0.001499 to $0.001512, followed by a bearish correction that tested the $0.001504 level. A doji appears at 02:45 ET, signaling indecision after a sharp decline from $0.001504 to $0.001500, suggesting potential consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (20SMA) has been trending upward from $0.001476 to $0.001485, while the 50SMA remains slightly below it at $0.001483. The pair closed at $0.001464 above both indicators, indicating a potential short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50DMA is at $0.001481, with the 100DMA at $0.001483 and 200DMA at $0.001485, suggesting that the price is currently below its key multi-day averages, which may represent a retest or pullback scenario.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line (0.000002) at 19:00 ET, confirming a bullish momentum shift that lasted into the early morning hours. The RSI reached 56 at the end of the 24-hour period, indicating moderate upward momentum without overbought conditions. Notably, a bearish divergence was observed at 02:00 ET when RSI hit 47 while price declined to $0.001463, which could signal weakening bearish pressure and potential consolidation ahead.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened between 10:00 and 11:00 ET, signaling a potential breakout. Price closed within the upper band at 15:00 ET and within the lower band at 02:00 ET, suggesting high volatility and a sideways trading range with no clear trend. The recent expansion in band width may indicate an increase in market uncertainty or speculative trading.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 02:00 ET with 2.04B PEPE traded, coinciding with a 0.7% drop in price. This divergence between price and volume indicates bearish exhaustion. Notional turnover also peaked at $5.56 million during this period. In contrast, the 19:00–20:00 ET period saw a 2.8% increase in price with a 1.2% rise in volume, confirming the bullish momentum. A divergence at 06:00 ET between rising price and declining volume suggests weakening bullish pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 19:00–20:00 ET swing (high: $0.001516, low: $0.001504), the 38.2% retrace level sits at $0.001511, and the 61.8% retrace is at $0.001508. Price tested the 61.8% level and consolidated around it before retreating. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from the $0.001457–$0.001513 move is at $0.001491, a level that saw a bounce in the early morning and could offer support in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering a long position on a bullish engulfing candle (such as the one at 19:15–19:30 ET) with a stop-loss placed below the previous swing low and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This setup would align with the observed momentum and volume confirmation. If the price fails to hold above $0.001463 after the doji formation at 02:45 ET, a short entry may be considered with a stop above $0.001467. Both setups should be monitored with strict risk management due to the high volatility and divergences observed.