Market Overview for Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY): Volatility Peaks Amid Mixed Momentum

Summary• Price opened at 0.000908, peaked at 0.000977, and closed at 0.000935 with bearish pressure.• Strong volume spikes confirmed key highs and lows, but divergences emerged in late hours.• RSI and MACD suggest overbought exhaustion and waning bullish momentum.

Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) opened at 0.000908 on 2025-11-07 and reached a high of 0.000977 before closing at 0.000935 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-08. The pair experienced a 24-hour high of 0.000977 and low of 0.000903, with a total traded volume of 5.51 billion units and notional turnover of $5.13 million. A distinct bearish shift became evident after a key intraday high at 0.000977 failed to hold.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a series of bearish engulfing patterns after 21:30 ET, signaling exhaustion in the bullish trend. A key resistance cluster formed between 0.000972 and 0.000977, while a support level at 0.000951 appeared to hold briefly before the price broke lower. A bearish divergence between price and volume emerged in the final hours of the session, suggesting potential bearish follow-through.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly in the late evening, with the 20SMA dipping below the 50SMA to reinforce short-term bearish bias. Daily moving averages show the price remains well below the 50 and 100-day SMAs, indicating a deeper bearish bias on the longer timeframe.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed into negative territory after 19:00 ET, with bearish momentum gaining strength as the histogram expanded. RSI peaked at 68.2% before rolling over into oversold territory below 50, suggesting the pair may consolidate further in the near term. The RSI divergence in the last two hours signals caution for short-term bullish traders.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply after 18:00 ET as the price moved well above the upper Bollinger Band at 0.000968 before pulling back toward the lower band at 0.000944. A contraction phase followed between 02:00 and 05:00 ET, suggesting potential for a breakout or breakdown event in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

High-volume candles confirmed the intraday high at 0.000977 and the late-day low at 0.000934, while volume declined sharply during consolidation phases. Notional turnover peaked at 0.000977 with $84.15 million traded in that 15-minute period, contrasting with a quiet close where volume dropped below $0.2 million.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 0.000903–0.000977 swing, the price found support at 61.8% (0.000944) and 38.2% (0.000965), both of which held briefly before the price broke below key support. Daily-level Fibonacci levels suggest a potential test of 0.000927 or 0.000915 in the coming days if the bearish momentum continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the potential effectiveness of a rules-based strategy for PEPEJPY, a backtest can be designed using RSI and MACD signals. For instance, a long entry could be triggered when the RSI drops below 30 (oversold) and the MACD line crosses above the signal line, with an exit when RSI exceeds 70 or MACD diverges bearishly. This approach could be tested on a representative list of tickers such as SPY or applied to this pair directly using the provided OHLCV data. The 2022-01-03 to 2025-11-07 timeframe offers sufficient volatility and data points for meaningful results.