Market Overview for Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) on 2025-10-09

• PEPEJPY traded in a tight range overnight before a sharp intraday decline broke key support levels.
• Morning session volume surged over 10x average, confirming bearish sentiment and momentum.
• RSI entered oversold territory post-11 AM ET, suggesting potential short-term reversal.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed in the early hours before an explosive expansion following a breakdown.

Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) opened at 0.001428 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 0.001489 before closing at 0.001413 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period reached 8,966,711,666. Total turnover was not reported, but volume spikes in the early morning and late afternoon suggest increased trading activity.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLC data reveals a key support level at 0.001413, which was tested and broken late in the morning. A significant bearish engulfing pattern formed around 17:15–17:30 ET, signaling bearish continuation. A long-legged doji at 22:45 ET suggested indecision before a sharp bearish reversal. Resistance was observed at 0.001473–0.001489, where the price stalled multiple times.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line, confirming a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is trending downward and is likely to cross below the 100- and 200-period lines, potentially signaling a bearish crossover that could reinforce downward momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the early morning, confirming a bearish shift in momentum. RSI dropped below 30 during the late morning, reaching as low as 28, indicating oversold conditions and potential for a near-term bounce. However, a bearish divergence between RSI and price in the late afternoon suggests further downward pressure is likely.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted tightly in the early morning (2–4 AM ET), signaling a potential breakout or breakdown. After 5 AM ET, the bands expanded significantly, with price breaking below the lower band. This suggests heightened volatility and a strong bearish bias for the remainder of the session.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the 17:30–18:00 ET timeframe and again at 22:30–23:00 ET, confirming aggressive bearish participation during key breakdowns. Notional turnover was not provided, but the consistent volume-to-price alignment supports a valid breakdown scenario. Divergences were not observed, indicating solid alignment between volume and price.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the recent 15-minute swing from 0.001423 to 0.001489 show the price breaking the 61.8% retracement level at 0.001446 and moving toward the 78.6% level at 0.001435. On a larger scale, the daily Fibonacci extension from the previous bearish move points to 0.001400 as a potential short-term target.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for PEPEJPY could involve entering short positions on a confirmed breakdown of key support levels (e.g., below 0.001415) with a stop above the recent 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.001435. A target of 0.001400 aligns with the 78.6% retracement and daily Fibonacci extension. This setup would require volume confirmation and a bearish divergence in RSI to validate the move. The RSI oversold condition also offers a potential for a retracement trade at 30–28, which could be paired with a bearish trend continuation.