Market Overview for Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) as of 2025-10-08

• PEPEJPY declined 0.000031 (2.11%) over 24 hours, closing near early-week lows.
• Momentum weakened as RSI dropped to 29, signaling oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded mid-day as price hit a 15-min high of 0.001467, but failed to hold gains.
• Bollinger Band contraction in the early morning preceded the sharp drop.
• Notional turnover surged to $583.5m, with a clear volume-weighted price sell-off.

24-Hour Price Action and Volume Summary

Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) opened at 0.001451 (12:00 ET–1) and reached a high of 0.001467 before closing at 0.001426 as of 12:00 ET. The 24-hour session saw total trading volume of 9,952,822,351 units and a notional turnover of approximately $1,415.3 million. The price action reflects a bearish continuation with a breakdown from key 15-min resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.001467-0.001463 (20:45–21:00 ET), signaling a shift in control to sellers. A doji appeared at 0.001466 (21:00 ET), indicating indecision and potential exhaustion of short-term bullish momentum. A strong breakdown occurred around 00:00 ET, where price gapped below support at 0.001442 and continued to 0.001426. Support levels to watch include 0.001425 and 0.001419, with 0.001442 appearing as a near-term resistance on any rebound.

Moving Averages

The 15-min chart shows a bearish crossover with the 20SMA below the 50SMA since the early morning. On the daily chart, price is below the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-day MA at ~0.001448 may serve as dynamic resistance on any short-term bounce.

MACD & RSI

The 15-min MACD turned negative in the early morning, aligning with the breakdown from key resistance. The histogram shows a sharp sell-off, with bearish divergence forming. RSI has dropped to 29, entering oversold territory, but without immediate bullish confirmation from the MACD. This could signal a potential short-term bounce, though a sustained reversal would require a close above the 50SMA and a positive MACD crossover.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened between 00:00 and 04:00 ET, with price hovering near the upper band before a sharp contraction. As the bands expanded post 04:30 ET, price broke below the lower band, confirming a bearish breakout. Price remains well below the 20-period Bollinger Band midpoint, indicating ongoing bearish momentum and potential for further downside.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked sharply between 00:00 and 04:30 ET, reaching a peak of 669,136,284 units, coinciding with the breakdown to 0.001426. Notional turnover rose to $583.5 million in this period, highlighting aggressive shorting or stop-loss activity. Despite the volume surge, price action remained bearish, with no signs of a bottoming formation. Divergence between volume and price is not evident, as both metrics aligned in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-min chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.001438 was briefly tested but failed to hold. The 50% level at 0.001450 also offered temporary resistance before the breakdown. Daily retracements place the 61.8% level at 0.001451, currently acting as a dynamic resistance for any rally. A move below the 38.2% daily retracement at 0.001446 could open the door to 0.001425 and 0.001419.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy in question is designed to capitalize on post-breakout bearish setups using a combination of MACD divergence, RSI oversold conditions, and volume confirmation. It triggers a sell signal when RSI < 30 and MACD histogram turns negative, with a stop-loss placed above the 50SMA on the 15-min chart. The strategy would have entered on the breakdown around 00:00 ET and exited either at the 15-min 50SMA or upon RSI recovery above 40. Given the current price action and technical alignment, the strategy would likely remain in a short position, awaiting a potential rebound test for an exit.