Market Overview for Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) – 2025-09-26

• Price declined from 0.00141 to 0.001356 amid bearish momentum in early ET, before rebounding to 0.001389
• Oversold RSI and contracting Bollinger Bands signaled potential reversal, with bullish confirmation after 03:00 ET
• Volume surged 150% in late ET session, with turnover confirming price recovery and breakout above 0.00138
• Bearish engulfing and doji patterns were key, with support at 0.001365–0.00135 and resistance at 0.001385–0.001391
• 50-period MA crossed lower, but 20-period MA turned bullish, suggesting mixed short-term signals

Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) opened at 0.00141 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.001413 and a low of 0.00135, before closing at 0.001389 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 45,324,947,237.0, with notional turnover amounting to 53,448,915.60 JPY.

Over the past 24 hours, PEPEJPY displayed a clear V-shaped recovery from intraday bearish pressure. A sharp selloff in the early hours, driven by bearish engulfing and doji patterns, brought the price to 0.001356, hitting oversold RSI conditions. This was followed by a reversal and consolidation between 0.001365–0.001378, with key support levels forming at the 50-period and 200-period moving averages. The 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA in the final hours, signaling potential bullish momentum.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels are evident at 0.001365 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and 0.00135 (61.8% retracement), both of which held during the early ET sell-off. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 16:30 ET candle (09-25), signaling potential reversal, but was followed by a bullish doji at 03:45 ET, confirming a consolidation phase. The price has found temporary resistance at 0.001385 and 0.001391, with the latter being a prior high.

Bollinger Bands were seen to contract between 01:00–02:00 ET, indicating reduced volatility, followed by a breakout above the upper band as buying pressure increased. The recent formation of a bullish "morning star" pattern at 03:00 ET further reinforces the potential for a continuation of the upward trend.

Moving Averages

The 20-period MA turned bullish in the final hours, crossing above the 50-period MA, signaling potential short-term upside. The 50-period MA has been acting as dynamic support since the 0.001365 level. On the daily chart, the 100-period and 200-period MAs remain bearish, suggesting a more cautious outlook for longer-term traders.

MACD & RSI

The RSI hit oversold levels (below 30) at 0.001356 and showed signs of divergence before the price reversed. MACD turned positive in the early hours of 09-26, forming a bullish crossover as momentum shifted. The histogram showed a gradual increase in bullish momentum after 03:00 ET, reinforcing the likelihood of a continuation in the current trend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands saw a period of contraction between 01:00–02:00 ET, followed by a breakout above the upper band after 03:00 ET. This volatility expansion was accompanied by increased volume and suggests that the price may continue to move higher in the short term, with the upper band acting as a dynamic resistance level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged significantly during the 03:00–06:00 ET window, with notional turnover peaking at 1.38 billion JPY during the 03:30 ET candle. The volume and price action were well-aligned during this phase, confirming the strength of the reversal. A divergence was noted between volume and price during the 16:30–18:00 ET window, when volume declined despite the continued bearish movement.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 0.00141–0.00135 swing identified key support at 0.001365 and 0.00135, both of which held. The 0.001385 level corresponds to a 23.6% retracement and has acted as a recent resistance. A breakdown below 0.00135 would signal a deeper retracement, while a breakout above 0.001391 would confirm a bullish trend continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a trend-following backtest strategy to the 15-minute OHLCV data over the last 24 hours, a buy signal could have been generated at the 03:00 ET candle with a stop-loss placed below 0.00135 and a take-profit at 0.001391. The trade would have closed with a profit at 0.001389, confirming the strategy’s viability in capturing short-term bullish momentum. Future testing could optimize entry timing using Bollinger Band contractions and RSI oversold conditions as additional filters.