Market Overview for Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY): 2025-09-17

• Price opened at 0.001595 and reached a high of 0.001641 before closing at 0.001598.
• Volatility expanded in the overnight session, with a 0.001604–0.001641 range.
• RSI briefly touched overbought levels, suggesting potential near-term reversal.
• Volume surged during the upward move, but diverged with price as PEPEJPY declined.
• A key resistance at 0.001624 and support at 0.001594 were tested and rejected.

Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) opened at 0.001595 (12:00 ET − 1) and closed at 0.001598 (12:00 ET), with a high of 0.001641 and low of 0.001576. Total volume over the 24 hours was 25,339,089,128.0, with a notional turnover of 40,080,000.00 JPY. The pair exhibited elevated volatility and momentum during the overnight hours, but momentum faded into the New York session.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure formed a bearish continuation pattern following a strong overnight rally. A key resistance at 0.001624 was tested multiple times and rejected by sellers. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 0.001624–0.001636, followed by a large bearish candle with wick at 0.001641–0.001626, signaling a potential short-term reversal. A 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.001613 was also rejected, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the downside, 0.001594–0.001598 appears to act as a key support level, with a doji forming near 0.001598 suggesting indecision.

Moving Averages and Volatility

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in the morning session, forming a death cross as price dipped below the 50-line. The daily 50/100/200 EMA lines show PEPEJPY is still above all, but the 50 and 100 lines are converging toward the 200-line, suggesting weakening upward bias. Bollinger Bands widened during the overnight rally, indicating a period of high volatility, followed by a reversion to the lower band in the morning, hinting at a potential reversal.

Momentum and Divergences

The RSI reached an overbought level above 70 during the early morning hours but fell below 50 by 08:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. MACD crossed below zero in the early morning and remained negative, with bearish divergence as price pushed higher while MACD declined. Volume during the rally was strong, but as price pulled back, volume declined, indicating weak follow-through from buyers. This divergence suggests a potential bearish continuation.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged during the overnight high of 0.001641, peaking at over 1.4 billion units, but dropped significantly as price retreated. The notional turnover aligned with these volume spikes but showed a divergence in the final hours, with turnover declining even as price remained stable. This weak volume support suggests limited conviction from buyers and may point to a possible bearish continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish momentum and key support and resistance levels observed, a possible backtesting strategy could be built using a 20-period EMA crossover with a RSI divergence filter. A short entry could be triggered when price crosses below the 20 EMA and RSI shows bearish divergence. Stops could be placed above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.001613, while take-profit could be set at the 0.00158–0.001585 zone. This strategy would aim to capitalize on the bearish reversal dynamics observed in the overnight and morning sessions.