Market Overview for Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) on 2025-09-15

• Price dropped sharply after reaching a 24-hour peak near 0.001725 and closed near 0.001601
• RSI indicated overbought conditions early, but momentum weakened by the afternoon
• Volatility surged during the bullish breakout, then collapsed during the sell-off
• Volume spiked sharply during the morning session, then faded during the decline
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion during the rally, and contraction during the bearish reversal

Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) opened at 0.001659 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET and rose to a high of 0.001725, before falling to a 24-hour low of 0.001561 and closing at 0.001601 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 9.45B units, while notional turnover amounted to $15.15M over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a strong bullish breakout above 0.001710 around 04:30–06:00 ET, characterized by multiple bullish engulfing and hammer patterns. This was followed by a sharp bearish reversal marked by a bearish engulfing pattern at 06:45 ET and a deep doji at 08:00 ET, indicating indecision and exhaustion. Key support levels to watch include 0.001600 (recent close), 0.001575, and 0.001550. Resistance remains at 0.001710 and 0.001730.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line around 06:30 ET, signaling a bearish crossover. By the close, the 50-period MA had dropped below 0.001650. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 0.001660, with the 100-period at 0.001640 and the 200-period at 0.001630. The price closed below all three, indicating bearish alignment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish after a short-lived bullish phase, with a bearish crossover observed at 06:30 ET. The histogram expanded during the decline, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI peaked at 75 around 04:30 ET and fell sharply to 33 by 08:00 ET, confirming overbought conditions and a loss of bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed significant expansion during the early rally, with price reaching the upper band at 0.001725. After the bearish reversal, volatility collapsed, and the bands contracted sharply, with price settling near the lower band at 0.001601. This suggests a period of consolidation ahead and the potential for a breakout in either direction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 897 million at 00:30 ET and again to 4.8 billion at 05:30 ET, both aligning with price highs. However, volume dropped below 500 million during the decline, indicating weakening bearish conviction. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern but showed a slight divergence in the final hour, with falling turnover despite a sharp price drop, hinting at liquidity exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.001650–0.001725 swing, the 38.2% retracement is at 0.001685, the 61.8% at 0.001670. Price found support at the 61.8% level but failed to hold, indicating bearish bias. For the broader daily move from 0.001630 to 0.001735, key levels lie at 0.001690 (38.2%) and 0.001670 (61.8%), which may be retested in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for this pair could involve entering a short position when price closes below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish MACD crossover and RSI below 50. A stop-loss could be placed above the nearest Fibonacci retracement level, with a target near the next support level. Given today’s price action, the strategy would have entered short at 0.001700 and exited at 0.001590, capturing a 6.5% move. The strategy’s success depends on strong alignment of MA, MACD, and RSI signals, as well as volume divergence.