Market Overview for Pepe/Tether (PEPEUSDT) — October 14, 2025

• Price declined from $7.98 to $7.15 with bearish momentum intensifying.
• Key support seen at $7.25–$7.30; resistance at $7.80–$7.85 remains intact.
• Volume surged during the decline but diverged from price at lower levels.
• RSI oversold at 30, with Bollinger Bands showing tightening volatility before a breakout.

Pepe/Tether (PEPEUSDT) opened at $7.70 on October 13 at 12:00 ET and closed at $7.26 by the same time on October 14. The 24-hour high was $7.98, with a low of $7.15. Total volume traded stood at 6.67 trillion units, while notional turnover reached approximately $5.03 million. The pair is showing a bearish bias with increasing short-term volatility.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart displayed several key bearish patterns, including a bearish engulfing pattern around the $7.85 level and a doji at $7.50, indicating indecision. A strong resistance cluster formed around $7.80–$7.85, which was tested multiple times without a clear breakout. On the downside, support levels at $7.45, $7.30, and $7.25 were notably tested. The most critical support appears to be the $7.25–$7.30 range, where the price consolidated for several hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA are in a bearish crossover, with the 50SMA crossing below the 20SMA during the late afternoon of October 13. This confirmed the short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50DMA has crossed below the 100DMA and 200DMA, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The price has remained below all these moving averages for most of the 24-hour period, indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD is negative across all timeframes, with the histogram showing increasing bearish momentum in the afternoon of October 13. RSI has entered oversold territory (below 30) in the early morning of October 14, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the RSI divergence with price suggests that bearish momentum remains strong. The RSI is showing increasing bearish momentum on the 15-minute chart, with a potential oversold bounce possible but unlikely to reverse the larger trend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands indicate a period of volatility contraction earlier in the 24-hour window, which was followed by a sharp breakout to the downside. Price has since remained below the middle band, with the upper band at $7.85–$7.90 acting as resistance and the lower band dipping below $7.10. This suggests that the pair is in a consolidation phase at the lower end of the band, with potential for a rebound into the middle band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the downward leg in the early morning of October 14, with a sharp increase in notional turnover. However, volume has since decreased, with price failing to hold above key support levels. The divergence between price and volume at lower levels suggests weakening bearish conviction. The largest single 15-minute volume spike occurred at $7.90–$7.95, coinciding with a bearish breakout attempt.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the most recent swing high at $7.98 and swing low at $7.15, the key levels are at $7.68 (38.2%), $7.46 (50%), and $7.28 (61.8%). The price has tested the 61.8% level multiple times and has failed to hold above it. A retest of the 50% level at $7.46 could indicate a potential reversal, but bearish momentum suggests the 61.8% level may act as a temporary floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

To assess the viability of a momentum-based entry strategy, a backtest could be designed around RSI oversold conditions and moving average crossovers. Using the 20/50 SMA system on a 15-minute chart, signals could be generated when the 20SMA crosses below the 50SMA (bearish) or vice versa (bullish). RSI oversold (below 30) and overbought (above 70) levels would provide filtering conditions for entries and exits. A stop-loss could be placed below the nearest Fibonacci level on the downside and above on the upside. Given the current RSI divergence and oversold condition, a potential bounce may be short-lived.