Market Overview for Pepe/Tether (PEPEUSDT) on 2025-11-06

Summary
• Pepe/Tether dropped 35.6% from its 24-hour high to low, closing near session lows.
• Volume surged over $200B in the last 6 hours of the session, aligning with price declines.
• RSI hit oversold territory and may trigger short-covering or bearish exhaustion.

Market Overview

Pepe/Tether (PEPEUSDT) opened at $5.74e-06 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at $5.62e-06 by 12:00 ET the next day. The pair saw a high of $5.81e-06 and a low of $5.54e-06. Total volume reached 589,225,626,460.0 with a notional turnover of $3,304,225,749. The session saw heightened volatility and large bearish momentum in the last 6 hours.

The candlestick structure reveals a series of lower highs and lower lows, with several bearish engulfing and dark cloud cover patterns. A key support level appears to be forming around $5.54e-06, where price has tested twice and bounced slightly.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, price has closed below both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA for the past five hours, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 20-EMA is at $5.75e-06, and the 50-EMA at $5.77e-06, both above current price levels.

Bollinger Bands reflect a significant contraction earlier in the session but have since expanded, indicating increased volatility. Price has been trading near the lower band for most of the past 6 hours, a typical sign of oversold conditions and possible reversal setups.

Momentum Indicators and Fibonacci Retracements

The RSI has fallen below 30, indicating oversold conditions, and has been hovering between 28 and 32 for the last two hours. A rebound in RSI is expected, though a break above 35 would confirm short-covering.

On the 15-minute chart, the most recent swing high was at $5.81e-06, with a key Fibonacci retracement level at 61.8% of that swing being around $5.64e-06—slightly above the current price. If support holds, a test of the $5.73e-06 (38.2% retracement) could follow.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume has been highly uneven, with the largest hourly volume spike occurring at 16:45 ET, where notional turnover hit $175.5M. Despite this, price continued to fall, suggesting bearish conviction.

Notional turnover has surged from $114M to over $500M in the last 4 hours, with a strong alignment between falling prices and rising turnover. This suggests that selling pressure is likely to persist unless a large buy-side volume spike emerges.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-based strategy described earlier could be applied to PEPEUSDT, with entry signals at RSI < 30 and exit signals at RSI > 30. Given the recent RSI levels, the market may be entering a potential buy zone. However, the strategy must account for the low liquidity and high volatility of tokens like PEPEUSDT to avoid false signals.