Market Overview for Pepe/Tether (PEPEUSDT) - 2025-10-07

• PEPEUSDT fell 0.32% over 24 hours, with a bearish close near the session low of $0.00001017.
• Price formed a series of bearish engulfing patterns in the early session, signaling bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded mid-session but later contracted, while volume surged during the breakdown.
• RSI and MACD confirmed bearish divergence, with RSI near oversold levels by session end.
• Key support identified at $0.00000993, with a 61.8% Fib level at $0.00000995 and 100-day MA at $0.00000998.

Pepe/Tether (PEPEUSDT) opened at $0.00001027 (12:00 ET - 1) and closed at $0.00000998 (12:00 ET). The 24-hour range was $0.00001037 high and $0.00000970 low. Total volume for the session was ~$4.11B, with notional turnover of ~$4.11B.

Structure & Formations

Price opened with a doji near $0.00001027, signaling indecision, followed by a bearish engulfing pattern that confirmed downward momentum. Key support levels emerged at $0.00000993 (session low) and $0.00000986 (61.8% Fib retracement from the $0.00001037 high). Resistance levels were identified at $0.00001015 (23.6% Fib) and $0.00001037 (daily high).

Moving Averages

The 20-period 15-min EMA crossed below the 50-period EMA, confirming a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA at $0.00000998 and 200-period MA at $0.00000985 both offered potential support, with price now approaching the 100-period MA at $0.00000998.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early session, while RSI fell into oversold territory by the end of the day. RSI’s bearish divergence with price indicated weakening momentum, with a reading near 30. A bounce from the 30-level could see a short-term rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded mid-session, with the bands widening to $0.00000045. Price spent the last half of the session near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating bearish exhaustion. A retest of the upper band at $0.00001015 could fail unless volume and momentum align.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to ~$429M in the 2330-0015 ET block, confirming a breakdown below key support at $0.00001017. Notional turnover matched the volume spike, suggesting conviction. However, late-session volume waned as price settled in a tight range near $0.00000998, indicating possible short-term equilibrium.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the daily chart, price found support near the 61.8% Fib level at $0.00000995 and the 100-day MA. On the 15-min chart, key retracement levels include $0.00001015 (23.6%), $0.00001022 (38.2%), and $0.00001029 (50%), all potential pivot points for near-term reversals.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours will test the $0.00000993 support level and whether buying interest emerges. A failure to hold above $0.00000990 could signal a deeper correction. Investors should monitor the 50-period MA and 23.6% Fib at $0.00001015 as potential reversal triggers.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential short-term strategy involves entering a short position when price breaks below the 50-period 15-min MA with a bearish engulfing pattern and RSI < 50. A stop-loss is placed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level, and a target is set at the 61.8% Fib. Given the recent divergence in RSI and confirmation from volume, this setup appears to have a higher probability of success over the next 1–2 candles.