Market Overview for Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC)

• PENDLEBTC declined from 4.397e-05 to 4.359e-05, closing near a 24-hour low.
• Key bearish momentum seen in early AM hours with volume surging above 2,000.
• RSI near oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded midday with a high of 4.466e-05 after a consolidation phase.
• No clear bullish divergence detected, but volume supports a retest of key support levels.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-11, Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) opened at 4.359e-05, reached a high of 4.466e-05, and closed at 4.359e-05 after hitting a low of 4.164e-05. The 24-hour volume totaled 3,330.2 units, while notional turnover was $143.69 (at average $4.30e-05). The price action reflected bearish sentiment, with a sharp decline from midday to early evening.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart reveals a bearish engulfing pattern during the 19:30–20:00 ET period, signaling potential short-term weakness. A notable bearish flag formed between 4.225e-05 and 4.302e-05, with a breakdown confirming a shift in momentum. Key support levels appear at 4.225e-05, 4.164e-05, and 4.145e-05, while resistance is clustered at 4.258e-05, 4.302e-05, and 4.352e-05. A doji candle formed at 4.168e-05, hinting at indecision near the 24-hour low.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA in the evening, forming a death cross. The 50-period MA currently sits at 4.279e-05, slightly above the 100-period MA at 4.253e-05. The 200-period MA is at 4.247e-05, suggesting a longer-term bearish trend is intact. Price remains below all three, reinforcing the downward bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines showed bearish divergence in the 19:30–20:45 ET period, with the histogram declining as prices fell. RSI reached oversold territory at 28.3 during the 05:00–06:00 ET window, but failed to rebound strongly—suggesting weak accumulation pressure. The MACD crossover remained negative throughout, while RSI remains under 30, hinting at potential for a minor bounce but not a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded within the Bollinger Bands throughout the day, with a brief expansion during the 05:00–06:00 ET window. The upper band reached 4.463e-05, aligning with the intraday high, while the lower band dipped to 4.164e-05. Price closed near the lower band, indicating a weak short-term scenario with potential for a retest of the band as a support level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 08:15–09:00 ET period, with a total of 2,276.1 units transacted. This coincided with a price high of 4.435e-05, suggesting rejection at the level. Conversely, the 19:30–20:45 ET decline occurred on weak volume, signaling a lack of conviction in the bearish move. Notional turnover mirrored volume, with the majority of activity concentrated in the morning and midday periods.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing from 4.164e-05 to 4.466e-05, key retracement levels at 4.277e-05 (38.2%) and 4.242e-05 (61.8%) were tested but failed to hold. A further pullback could target the 50% level at 4.315e-05, which coincided with a 15-minute candle close. The 61.8% level remains critical for any bearish continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed bearish momentum and key breakdown at 4.225e-05, a potential backtest strategy could target a short entry below that level with a stop just above 4.258e-05. A tight stop allows for capturing aggressive bearish continuation while minimizing false triggers. A target could be set at 4.164e-05, the intraday low. This aligns with the RSI’s oversold condition and volume confirmation during the breakdown. The setup would work best on 1-hour or daily timeframes, where higher conviction levels can be confirmed.