Market Overview for Peanut the Squirrel/Bitcoin (PNUTBTC) - 2025-10-12

• Price formed a strong bearish reversal after a sharp decline from 1.29e-06 to 1.2e-06 within 8 hours.
• Volume surged during the downward leg, confirming the bearish move, while volume dried up at the bottom.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting potential for a bounce, though bullish confirmation remains pending.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility with price near the lower band, hinting at a potential rebound.
• Fibonacci levels indicate 1.23e-06 and 1.25e-06 as possible retest zones before resuming the downward trend.

The pair Peanut the Squirrel/Bitcoin (PNUTBTC) opened at 1.27e-06 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.23e-06 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 1.29e-06 and a low of 1.2e-06. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 67,263.9 PNUT, and notional turnover amounted to approximately 65.93 BTC.

Structure & Formations

The price action on the 15-minute chart revealed a bearish breakdown after a strong short-term rally. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed around 15:30 ET as price opened at 1.24e-06 and closed at 1.29e-06, followed by a decisive rejection with a candle opening at 1.29e-06 and closing at 1.21e-06 the next morning. A low of 1.2e-06 emerged as a potential support zone, tested twice without a strong rebound. The formation suggests continued bearish pressure, especially if price closes below 1.2e-06 tomorrow.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained in a downtrend, with price consistently closing below both. This confirms bearish momentum in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period MA, signaling a bearish crossover that supports the continuation of the decline.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed bearish divergence with a weak histogram and a negative crossover, reinforcing the short-term bearish outlook. RSI reached 28, suggesting the pair is in oversold territory. However, without a clear bullish reversal on the chart, this oversold condition may not lead to a reversal and instead could result in a continuation of the bearish trend.

Bollinger Bands

Price moved near the lower Bollinger Band, with volatility moderate. A bounce from the band is possible, especially if the RSI recovers, but the trend remains intact. The band contraction observed between 19:00 and 21:00 ET gave way to a sharp expansion as the price dropped to 1.2e-06, indicating a potential breakout to the downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sharp decline to 1.2e-06, peaking at 5000.0 PNUT when the price hit 1.29e-06. The spike in turnover (around 65.93 BTC) coincided with the breakdown, reinforcing the move. However, volume and turnover slowed considerably after the price hit the 1.2e-06 level, indicating a lack of buying interest and possible exhaustion at the bottom. This could set the stage for a short-term bounce if buyers return.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing (1.29e-06 to 1.2e-06), key retracement levels at 1.25e-06 (38.2%) and 1.23e-06 (61.8%) appear as potential areas of interest. If the price bounces from 1.2e-06, 1.23e-06 may act as a short-term target. On the daily chart, a larger Fibonacci structure suggests 1.25e-06 and 1.27e-06 as critical resistance levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering a short position when price closes below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss at the recent swing high and a take-profit at the nearest Fibonacci 61.8% level. This aligns with the observed price behavior on 2025-10-12, where a clear breakdown below the MA occurred alongside strong volume and a bearish engulfing pattern. The strategy would have captured the drop from 1.29e-06 to 1.21e-06, with risk controlled via the stop-loss at 1.29e-06.