Market Overview for PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) – October 10, 2025

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• PAXGBTC drifted lower over 24 hours, closing near session lows amid subdued volume and bearish momentum.
• Price action showed bearish engulfing patterns and failed to reclaim key resistance near 0.0333–0.0334.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, followed by a sharp pullback to 0.03276, suggesting short-term bearish bias.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought exhaustion and bearish divergence, while Bollinger Bands widened.

PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) opened at 0.03336 on October 9 at 12:00 ET, drifted to a high of 0.03373 and a low of 0.03266, and closed at 0.03368 at the same time on October 10. Total volume across 24 hours amounted to 109.1445 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $3.72 (at average price ~$0.0336).

The 24-hour chart displayed a bearish bias, with price testing key resistance zones multiple times and failing to hold above 0.0333. A significant bearish engulfing pattern formed early in the session, followed by a long lower wick around 0.03276, hinting at buying support. However, the lack of follow-through strength indicated ongoing bearish pressure.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged at 0.03276 and 0.03286, with the latter acting as a minor floor later in the session. The 0.0333–0.0334 range acted as a clear resistance cluster, with multiple failed attempts to break through. A doji formed near 0.03288, signaling indecision, while a bearish engulfing candle at 0.03326–0.03301 confirmed weakness. Price action suggests sellers gained control after the 16:45 ET swing.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained bearish, with price consistently below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA hovered near 0.0334, with the 100 and 200-period lines at 0.0336 and 0.0338, respectively. Price failed to close above the 50-period MA, reinforcing the bearish trend and potential for further testing of lower levels.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative early in the session and remained bearish, with the signal line crossing below the histogram to confirm bearish momentum. RSI dipped to 30 by mid-day, signaling oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a meaningful rebound. The divergence between price and RSI suggested bearish exhaustion was likely over, with potential for a short-term bounce into oversold territory.

Bollinger Bands showed volatility expanding as price tested the lower band around 0.03276 and retested it multiple times. The mid-band hovered near 0.0331–0.0332, with price oscillating in a tight range before the final 4.5-hour rally to the session high.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained relatively subdued for most of the session, with a sharp increase occurring around 15:00 ET (2025-1010) when price surged from 0.03278 to 0.03373. This move saw a 16.72 unit volume spike, with a turnover of ~$0.56. However, this buying failed to sustain, and price reversed lower. A second volume spike occurred near the 0.03276 support, with buyers stepping in but failing to push above 0.03288. The volume-to-price divergence suggests weak conviction among buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the major 24-hour swing from 0.03373 to 0.03266, the 61.8% retracement level sits at 0.03333, which acted as a key resistance. The 38.2% level at 0.03306 was also tested but failed to hold. On the 15-minute chart, minor retracements occurred around 0.03288 and 0.03293, with the 61.8% level aligning with 0.03301. These levels could serve as dynamic pivots in the coming 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy would involve entering short positions on a close below key Fibonacci support levels (38.2%–61.8%) with a stop above the nearest resistance. A 1:2 risk-reward ratio is reasonable given the recent volatility and bearish momentum. The strategy could also include a RSI-based filter, entering only when RSI is below 30 and diverging from price. This approach would have captured the bearish move from 0.03373 to 0.03276 but would need to avoid the 15:00 ET rebound. In the next 24 hours, a retest of 0.03276 could trigger further bearish action, validating the setup.