Market Overview for PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC)

• PAXGBTC opened at $0.03317, reached a high of $0.03328, and a low of $0.03262 before closing at $0.03271 at 12:00 ET.
• Price action shows bearish momentum from 17:30 ET onward, with a decisive breakdown below key support at $0.03300.
• Total traded volume was 123.89 BTC, with notional turnover of $4.05 (based on $64,000 BTC price estimate).
• A large bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 19:30 ET, confirming downward bias.
• RSI and MACD both signaled bearish momentum, with price near the lower Bollinger Band at close.

Market Overview

PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) opened at $0.03317 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET, touched a high of $0.03328, and fell as low as $0.03262 before closing at $0.03271 at 12:00 ET. The pair saw total volume of 123.89 BTC, with an estimated notional turnover of $4.05 (based on BTC’s $64,000 price). The session featured a clear breakdown in structure following a large bearish engulfing candle, suggesting bearish continuation.

Structure & Formations

Key resistance levels include $0.03300 and $0.03328, while support is seen near $0.03268 and $0.03262. A bearish engulfing pattern at 19:30 ET and a long bearish shadow at 17:30 ET signaled increased bearish conviction. Price appears to be forming a descending triangle pattern over the last six hours, with a potential target at $0.03250 or below.

Moving Averages

Short-term 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both trended downward, with the 20-period crossing below the 50-period, forming a bearish "death cross." Daily 50/100/200 EMA lines are also in a bearish alignment, reinforcing the downtrend.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish in the afternoon, with the histogram shrinking and crossing below the signal line. RSI declined from mid-50s to near 29, indicating oversold conditions and potential for a short-term bounce. However, price remains under pressure, and a reversal without a break above $0.03300 is unlikely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the late afternoon and early evening, with a large candle at 19:30 ET breaking below the lower band. Price finished near the lower boundary of the Bollinger Band, suggesting continued bearish momentum and potential for further consolidation below $0.03268.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged near 17:30 and 19:30 ET, coinciding with sharp downward moves. Total notional turnover increased proportionally, confirming bearish bias. The largest candle at 17:30 ET had a volume of 55.58 BTC, and at 19:30 ET, 56.50 BTC. Price and volume are aligned in the bearish direction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key swing from $0.03262 to $0.03328, 38.2% and 61.8% levels sit near $0.03289 and $0.03281, respectively. Price has tested the 61.8% level in the last hour, suggesting a potential bounce or a retest of $0.03262 if bears continue to dominate.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy proposed focuses on identifying bearish engulfing patterns that occur on high-volume candles, especially when they appear after a period of consolidation. These patterns, combined with a RSI reading below 30 and a bearish MACD crossover, form a short-biased signal. The hypothesis suggests entering a short position with a stop above the recent swing high and a target aligned with the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. Given the current structure, this setup appears to be in favor of a bearish continuation, though a break above $0.03300 would invalidate the short bias.