Market Overview for PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC)

• PAXGBTC traded in a narrow range early before forming a bullish recovery from ~0.03148 to ~0.0325.
• A 1.2% gain was posted on the 24-hour chart, with momentum peaking in the late evening and early morning ET.
• Volatility expanded late in the session as Bollinger Bands widened and price pushed through key resistance levels.
• Volume increased sharply after 21:30 ET, coinciding with a breakout above 0.0318.
• RSI crossed into overbought territory near 75, suggesting potential near-term exhaustion or consolidation.

PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) opened at 0.03168 on October 6 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.03193 on October 7 at the same time. The 24-hour range spanned 0.03148 to 0.0325. Total volume amounted to 132.16, with a notional turnover of 4.1976, showing increased interest in the pair.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data showed a strong base-building phase from ~0.03148 to ~0.0318, followed by a breakout above 0.0318 after 21:30 ET. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 0.0318–0.03195, confirming a shift in sentiment. A doji at ~0.03204–0.03206 suggests indecision at the high point, hinting at potential pullbacks. Key support levels appear at 0.0318, 0.03165, and 0.03154, while resistance is forming at 0.03205, 0.03218, and 0.03243.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart showed a bullish crossover after 00:00 ET, supporting the upward move. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period SMAs were aligned and provided a baseline for the upward thrust, with the price consistently above all three, indicating a strong short-to-medium-term trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the zero line at around 00:30 ET and showed a positive divergence with the price, suggesting a continuation of the bullish move. RSI surged to overbought levels (~75) in the final hours of the session, indicating potential for a consolidation or pullback in the next 24 hours.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 21:30 ET, with the upper band reaching 0.0325. The closing price of 0.03193 resides near the middle band, suggesting that the price is consolidating following the recent breakout. A contraction phase could precede a new move, either upward or downward.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked after 21:30 ET, aligning with the breakout above 0.0318 and again during the late-night and early morning hours. The surge in turnover during these periods confirms the strength of the move. A divergence in volume and price was observed during the doji formation, implying a potential pause in momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing low at 0.03148 and high at 0.0325, key retracement levels appear at 0.03195 (61.8%), 0.03218 (50%), and 0.03232 (38.2%). The price is currently hovering near the 61.8% level, which could act as a temporary consolidation zone before a potential breakout or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish breakout above the 0.0318 level, confirmed by a close above the 20-period SMA and a bullish MACD crossover. A stop-loss could be placed just below the 0.03165 support level, with take-profit targets aligned with Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.03218 and 0.0325. The overbought RSI and doji formation suggest caution in adding to positions at current levels.