Market Overview for PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) on 2025-11-11

Summary
• PAXGBTC saw a bearish close on 2025-11-11, with price near 0.03971.
• Volatility expanded, with price swinging between 0.03842 and 0.03970.
• RSI moved toward overbought territory late, signaling potential exhaustion.
• Bollinger Bands tightened mid-session before a sharp break.
• Volume spiked during the late afternoon, aligning with the price drop.

PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) opened at 0.03893 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.03971 the following day. The pair reached a high of 0.03970 and a low of 0.03842 during the 24-hour window. Total volume amounted to 154.5996, with a notional turnover of approximately 59.8527. Price behavior reflected a late-day rally amid increased volume and diverging momentum indicators.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart displayed a bearish bias from early in the session, with a key bearish engulfing pattern forming around 2025-11-10 23:00. A notable doji appeared at 2025-11-11 01:30, suggesting indecision. The market found temporary support at 0.03842 and resistance at 0.03926, with price failing to break above the latter before a late recovery. Fibonacci retracement levels at 61.8% (0.03941) and 38.2% (0.03918) showed strong relevance in the final hours of the session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA) and 50-period SMA were both below the current price, reinforcing a bullish crossover into the final hours of the session. The 50-period SMA crossed above the 20-period SMA as the price rallied past 0.03931. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period SMA remained in a downtrend, indicating a potential divergence between short-term and long-term trends.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory in the final three hours of the session, confirming bullish momentum. However, the RSI moved into overbought territory (above 60) near the close, suggesting a potential pullback may occur in the short term. The RSI also showed signs of divergence from price during the early part of the session, signaling a potential bearish reversal that did not materialize due to late buying.

Bollinger Bands

Price spent most of the session near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a period of consolidation and low volatility. A contraction in the bands was observed around 2025-11-10 22:00 before a sharp break to the upper band near the close. The late rally pushed price closer to the upper band, with a width expansion of nearly 13 basis points, indicating rising volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the late afternoon and early evening hours, particularly between 2025-11-10 20:30 and 2025-11-11 02:00, coinciding with a significant price drop. Notional turnover spiked during these hours, reaching a peak of 8.4291 at 2025-11-10 18:45. Despite the bearish price move, volume during the late rally remained strong, confirming the move rather than diverging from it.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels during the 15-minute window included 61.8% (0.03941), 78.6% (0.03963), and 100% (0.03970), with price showing strong absorption at the 61.8% and 78.6% levels. Daily Fibonacci retracements, based on the broader move from 0.03842 to 0.03970, showed 38.2% (0.03899) and 61.8% (0.03936) as significant support and resistance zones. Price held above both levels, suggesting a potential continuation of the bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could utilize the bearish engulfing pattern observed on the 15-minute chart at 2025-11-10 23:00, with an exit based on the next resistance level. Using daily candles, the engulfing pattern would be valid for a short trade, provided the previous candle had a distinct bearish close and the current candle engulfed its body. Resistance could be defined as the most recent swing high (e.g., 0.03926), and a stop-loss placed just below a key support level, such as the 38.2% Fibonacci at 0.03899. This approach could be tested between 2022-01-01 and 2025-11-11 to assess profitability and risk-adjusted returns.