Market Overview for PancakeSwap/Tether (CAKEUSDT)

• CAKEUSDT dropped from 3.00 to 2.66 on heavy volume, forming bearish momentum and a bearish engulfing pattern near 3.00.
• RSI oversold at 29 during the selloff, but price failed to rebound, signaling weak follow-through buying.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, and price tested the 2.78–2.80 level multiple times, failing to break higher.
• Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at 2.83 acted as a resistance, while 2.656 marked a key support level.
• MACD diverged during the decline, with bearish divergence forming after a false recovery attempt.

PancakeSwap/Tether (CAKEUSDT) opened at 3.002 on 2025-10-16 at 12:00 ET and closed at 2.793 on 2025-10-17 at the same time. The 24-hour high reached 3.038, while the low dropped to 2.656. Total trading volume amounted to 18,406,952.05, with a notional turnover of approximately $51.5 million, indicating increased bearish pressure and market uncertainty.

The 15-minute chart shows a distinct breakdown from key support levels after a failed attempt to rebound from 2.76. A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 3.00, followed by a series of lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages have crossed to the downside, with the price now well below both, suggesting short-term weakness.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels to watch are 2.656 (recent low), 2.723 (swing low), and 2.78 (rejection level). Resistance is clustered around 2.80 and 2.83, with Fibonacci retracement levels from the 3.00–2.656 move providing further context. A notable doji appeared near 2.75, signaling indecision among traders at that level. The bearish engulfing pattern near 3.00 confirmed a shift in momentum toward the downside, while the 2.656 level may act as a critical support to watch.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dipped below 30 into oversold territory during the selloff but failed to trigger a significant rebound, indicating weak follow-through demand. MACD showed a bearish crossover with negative divergence developing during the price action, which may point to further weakness. The histogram has been shrinking during the decline, suggesting decreasing momentum, but a failure to close above the signal line increases the likelihood of more downside.

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the drop, highlighting a volatility expansion. Price has been trading near the lower band for most of the session, reinforcing the bearish pressure. A retest of the 2.78 level may trigger a bounce, but a break below 2.656 could accelerate the decline.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown near 2.656, confirming the bearish move. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with heavy selling observed in the 2.66–2.68 range. However, volume was relatively weak during the failed attempts to rebound above 2.78, suggesting a lack of conviction in the buy-side. This divergence between price and volume reinforces the bearish scenario and suggests that the selloff may continue in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 3.00–2.656 move, the 61.8% level at 2.83 acts as a key resistance. The 50% level at 2.828 is also a critical area to watch for potential short-term bounces. On the downside, the 38.2% level at 2.81 could offer limited support if buyers re-enter the market. A break below 2.656 would trigger the 100% extension level at 2.31, but this appears unlikely in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish divergence in RSI and MACD, a potential backtest strategy could involve selling CAKEUSDT when RSI drops below 30 on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed above the 20-period moving average and a target set at the next Fibonacci support level. Assuming 15-minute bars with close-based entry and exit, and a standard 14-period RSI, this strategy would aim to capture short-term bearish momentum. If executed from 2022-01-01 to present, it could offer insights into the effectiveness of RSI-based mean-reversion selling in a volatile altcoin pair like CAKEUSDT. Transaction costs and slippage can be initially ignored for a high-level simulation.