Market Overview for Osmosis/USDC (OSMOUSDC)

• Osmosis/USDC traded lower, closing below 0.1130 with bearish momentum intensifying in late hours
• 24-hour volume concentrated in 19:00–22:00 ET, with price consolidating near 0.1107–0.1125 range
• MACD and RSI suggest weakening momentum with potential oversold conditions near 0.1105
• Bollinger Band contraction observed during 23:00–00:00 ET, indicating possible low volatility phase
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.1113 and 0.1124 act as immediate support/resistance for near-term action

Osmosis/USDC (OSMOUSDC) opened at 0.1134 on October 30, 2025, and closed at 0.1136 by 12:00 ET on October 31. The pair reached an intraday high of 0.1141 and a low of 0.1095 over the 24-hour period. Total 15-minute OHLCV volume summed to 400,967.83, with notional turnover reaching approximately $45,623 (assuming 1 USDC = $1). Price action showed a late-night reversal from bearish to neutral, with volume and momentum clustering between 19:00–22:00 ET before stabilizing near the 0.1130–0.1136 range.

Structure & Formations

The price structure over the past 24 hours formed a broad descending triangle, with key support levels at 0.1105, 0.1113, and 0.1120, and resistance at 0.1125 and 0.1136. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed during the 18:30–18:45 ET period, with a 0.1121 open and a 0.1112 close, signaling a potential short-term trend shift. A doji appeared at 21:30–21:45 ET, indicating indecision near 0.1100, and a bullish reversal at 09:45–10:00 ET showed renewed buying interest near 0.1118.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed below price during the 19:00–20:00 ET session, confirming bearish momentum. On the daily chart, price closed above the 50-period and 100-period SMAs, suggesting a longer-term bullish bias remains intact. However, the 200-period SMA sits at approximately 0.1103, making it a critical psychological level for potential oversold bounce scenarios.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed into negative territory during the 19:30–20:00 ET window, with a bearish divergence observed between price and momentum. The RSI dipped below 30 near 0.1106 during the 20:30–21:00 ET period, indicating potential oversold conditions. However, divergence between RSI and price during the 03:45–04:00 ET window suggests buyers may enter near 0.1118.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility peaked during the 19:30–20:30 ET window, with price oscillating between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands. A contraction occurred between 23:00–00:00 ET, indicating a potential pre-breakout phase. Price has since re-established near the mid-Band at 0.1122–0.1128, suggesting a range-bound setup for the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked between 19:00–22:00 ET, with the largest trade occurring at 22:00–22:15 ET when 30,220.03 units were transacted at 0.1098–0.1099. Notional turnover also increased during this period, aligning with the bearish price action. However, divergence appeared during the 04:15–04:30 ET window, where volume dropped despite a price increase. This may indicate reduced conviction in the current trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 19:00–22:00 ET bearish swing, the 38.2% level is at 0.1113 and the 61.8% at 0.1124. These levels could serve as immediate support and resistance, respectively. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level from the October 20–30 price action sits at 0.1129, which aligns with recent buying interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent MACD behavior and RSI divergence suggest potential short-term reversals, aligning with a MACD-based backtest strategy. To proceed, we would need a validated historical price feed for OSMOUSDC or an equivalent alternative (e.g., OSMO-USDT on Binance or OSMO-USD on another exchange). Once a valid time series is provided, we can simulate a Golden Cross strategy from 2022 to 2025, tracking entry, exit, and risk-adjusted returns. This would allow for a direct comparison with the current 15-minute momentum readings and Fibonacci levels.