Market Overview: Ontology/Tether (ONTUSDT) Daily Action on 2025-10-11

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• Ontology/Tether (ONTUSDT) opened at 0.119 and closed at 0.0965, declining 18.91% over 24 hours with a high of 0.1203 and low of 0.049.
• Momentum shifted decisively lower after a sharp selloff around 21:30 ET, where price collapsed to 0.0644 before stabilizing.
• Volatility spiked dramatically during the 15–22:30 ET window, with a 15-minute range of 0.0762–0.1006.
• Turnover surged to a peak of 6.74 million at 21:30 ET, confirming the bearish reversal.

Structure & Formations

ONTUSDT formed a strong bearish engulfing pattern around 21:30 ET, where a long red candle engulfed the prior green bar, indicating a shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish. This was followed by a prolonged bearish trend with several lower highs and lower lows. Notable support levels emerged at 0.088–0.089 and 0.0945–0.0955, while resistance lingered around 0.098–0.100. A potential 2B bottom was observed at 0.0945 during the early morning, suggesting a possible bounce.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a bearish crossover around 21:30, confirming the bearish breakout. For daily analysis, the 50-period MA remained above the 200-period MA but showed signs of flattening as the price moved lower. The 100-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA around the 23:15–00:00 window, signaling a bearish divergence.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish around 21:30 ET, with a bearish crossover and negative divergence. RSI dropped sharply from overbought territory to oversold levels, hitting 25 at 00:30 ET. This suggests that the market may be exhausting its bearish momentum, but a reversal is likely to require stronger buying pressure to break above the 0.098 level.

Bollinger Bands

The price broke below the lower Bollinger Band at 21:30 ET and remained below it for the remainder of the session, indicating strong volatility and bearish momentum. The bands widened significantly during the 15–22:30 ET window, reflecting increased uncertainty and fear in the market.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 6.74 million at 21:30 ET, coinciding with the sharp drop in price. Notional turnover followed suit, peaking at $685k at the same time. However, volume began to contract after 02:00 ET, suggesting a potential short-term bottom may be forming. Price and turnover showed alignment during the initial selloff but diverged slightly in the final 4–6 hours of the session.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 21:30 ET swing low (0.0644) and 19:30 ET high (0.1165), key levels emerged at 0.0847 (38.2%), 0.0938 (50%), and 0.1029 (61.8%). The price bounced off the 50% level multiple times but failed to sustain above 0.098. This suggests a potential near-term support at 0.0945–0.0955.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy involves entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern formation with volume confirmation above the 50-period MA, and exiting short positions when RSI reaches oversold territory. The 0.0955–0.0965 zone could act as a short-term consolidation area, with a potential break above 0.098 triggering a retest of 0.100–0.101. Traders could consider using tight stop-losses just below 0.0945 to manage risk in this volatile environment.