Market Overview for Ondo/Turkish Lira (ONDOTRY) – 2025-11-09

Summary
• Price opened at $27.4 and closed at $27.45, with a 24-hour range of $26.8–$27.92.
• RSI hit oversold levels in early hours, showing potential for short-term bounce.
• Volume spiked to 7,649.9 units at market open, with notable divergence in price and turnover.

Ondo/Turkish Lira (ONDOTRY) opened at $27.4 at 12:00 ET – 1, reaching a high of $27.92 and a low of $26.80 before settling at $27.45 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour total volume amounted to 69,564.71 units, while total notional turnover (amount in Turkish Lira) reached 1,873,144.96 TRY.

Structure & Formations

Price tested key support levels at $27.0 and $26.8, with a bullish rejection observed at $26.89 during the early morning hours. A morning doji near $27.53 and a bullish engulfing pattern from $26.90 to $27.12 suggest accumulation at lower levels. The $27.45–$27.55 range appears to be a critical short-term resistance area.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA is currently at ~$27.48, slightly above the 50-period MA (~$27.43), indicating mild bullish momentum in the near term. The 50-period MA on the daily chart has been trending downward, suggesting a bearish bias for longer-term trends.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed into negative territory during the early morning, aligning with the bearish move toward $26.8. However, a divergence in RSI at the oversold level (below 30) at 03:00 ET suggests a potential reversal. RSI has since rebounded to ~48, indicating neutral momentum and potential for a short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

The price spent much of the night near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating high volatility and extreme bearish pressure. A contraction in band width was observed around 01:00–01:30 ET, followed by a sharp price rebound, which could signal a continuation of bullish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 00:30 ET (7,649.9 units) during a sharp sell-off to $27.54, while turnover also spiked, indicating heavy participation during the downtrend. A divergence between volume and price was noted in the late morning, where rising prices were supported by declining volume, which could hint at a weakening bullish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels to the $26.8–$27.92 swing, the 61.8% level (~$27.55) appears to have acted as a short-term resistance area, with price bouncing off this level multiple times. A potential target for a bounce could be the 78.6% level near $27.80.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-based strategy of entering long positions when RSI falls below 30 and exiting when it crosses back above 30 has shown historical gains of ~20% from 2022 to present. This aligns with today’s price action, where RSI touched oversold levels during the early hours, potentially setting up for a bounce. However, the strategy assumes no transaction costs and ignores broader market conditions, which may limit its effectiveness in low-volatility or sideways markets. The key takeaway is that while RSI oversold conditions may offer high-probability bounce opportunities, confirmation through volume and price action is essential.