Market Overview: OGNUSDT on 2025-10-03

• OGNUSDT rose from 0.0595 to 0.0649 over 24 hours, forming a bullish trend with strong volume in the latter half.
• Momentum accelerated with a 24-hour RSI reaching 64, indicating overbought conditions.
• Bollinger Bands expanded mid-day, reflecting rising volatility as price moved toward the upper band.
• Notable 15-minute bullish engulfing and hammer patterns emerged around 07:15–09:30 ET.
• Turnover increased to $22.76M by 16:00 ET, confirming price strength and retail buying pressure.

Origin Protocol/Tether (OGNUSDT) opened at 0.0595 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0649 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.0666 and a low of 0.0595. The 24-hour trading session saw a total volume of 43,319,445.00 OGN and a notional turnover of approximately $22.76 million, reflecting heightened participation toward the end of the period.

The structure of the 24-hour candlestick chart reveals a strong bullish bias. On the 15-minute timeframe, key support levels were identified at 0.0614 and 0.0602, with resistance forming at 0.063 and 0.0645. Notable candlestick formations include a bullish engulfing pattern at 07:15 ET, a hammer at 08:45 ET, and a three-white-soldiers pattern between 06:30–07:45 ET, which confirmed the upward trend. A doji near the 0.0645 level suggests hesitation before a potential consolidation phase.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a clear bullish crossover, with the 20-period MA above the 50-period MA. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is crossing above the 100-period MA, signaling a potential continuation of the bullish bias. The 200-period MA remains below the current price, suggesting some long-term bullish momentum. The 15-minute MACD crossed above the signal line around 08:00 ET, with a positive histogram, affirmating bullish momentum. RSI reached 64 by 16:00 ET, indicating overbought conditions and a potential short-term reversal risk.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 07:30 ET, reflecting rising volatility. The price moved into and near the upper band for much of the day, suggesting a strong bullish trend. Volatility contraction occurred briefly during the 04:45–05:15 ET window, but this was followed by a sharp breakout to the upside. The 15-minute Fibonacci retracement from the 0.0602 low to the 0.0666 high identified key levels at 0.0632 (38.2%) and 0.0649 (61.8%). The price found resistance at the 61.8% level and consolidated briefly before breaking higher again in the afternoon.

Volume increased substantially after 05:45 ET, with the largest notional turnover occurring between 07:15–09:30 ET, where price surged from 0.0611 to 0.0661. Notable volume spikes occurred at 05:45 ET, 07:15 ET, and 08:30 ET, confirming the strength of the bullish move. The divergence between price and volume in the early morning hours (05:15–06:15 ET) suggests a temporary pause before the breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis
The observed technical setup aligns with a breakout strategy using Bollinger Bands and moving average crossovers. A hypothetical backtest could involve entering long positions when price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band and the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA. Stops could be placed below the 0.0643–0.0635 support zone, with take-profit targets near the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.0649) and potentially extending toward the 0.0661–0.0666 high. This strategy appears to capture the morning and midday rally effectively, though it would require a close watch for overbought conditions and potential pullbacks in the following 24 hours.